- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.44-32.48 this morning supportive level at 32.35 resistance level at 32.60
- SET Index: 1,127.2 (+1.0%), 3 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,279.4 (+0.83%), 3 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.607 (+1.82 bps), 3 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.35 (+5.0 bps), 3 July 2025
- Nonfarm Payrolls rose 147,000 in June, topping forecasts
- US ISM services expand modestly
- House passes tax bill, advancing Trump’s economic agenda
- China Caixin PMI weakens to 9-month low in new hurdle
- World Bank cuts Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast to 1.8%
- Dollar rises on strong NFP report
Nonfarm Payrolls rose 147,000 in June, topping forecasts
Non-farm payrolls rose by 147,000 in June, beating expectations, with prior months revised up by 16,000. The three-month average rose to 150,000. Most of the gains came from state and local government hiring, while federal jobs declined. The jobless rate fell to 4.1%, driven by a drop in labor force participation rather than a surge in employment. Meanwhile, wage growth was modest, with average hourly earnings rising just 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, cooler than expected.
US ISM services expand modestly
The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, up nearly a point and back into expansion, matching expectations. Ten industries grew, including transportation, utilities, and recreation, while six—led by agriculture and construction—contracted. Business activity and orders picked up modestly, but the employment gauge fell 3.5 points to 47.2, its third contraction in four months.
House passes tax bill, advancing Trump’s economic agenda
The House approved a $3.4 trillion fiscal package that includes tax cuts, reduces spending on safety-net programs, and rolls back many of Joe Biden’s clean-energy initiatives. The bill passed narrowly, 218-214, on Thursday and is now headed to President Trump ahead of the July 4 deadline he set. The president plans to sign the bill during a White House ceremony at 4 p.m. on Friday.
China Caixin PMI weakens to 9-month low in new hurdle
China’s services activity hit a nine-month low in June, with the Caixin services PMI dropping to 50.6 from 51.1, below the 50.9 forecast. Weak jobs and slow wage growth are keeping consumers cautious, with new export business declining and job losses seen for the third time in four months.
World Bank cuts Thailand’s 2025 growth forecast to 1.8%
The World Bank projects Thailand’s economic growth to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, down from earlier forecasts of 2.9% and 2.7%.
Dollar rises on strong NFP report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.607, +1.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.618, +1.64 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.35, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.35, moving in a range of 32.44 – 32.48 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.35 – 32.60 today. The US dollar strengthened following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which led markets to unwind expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The euro weakened in response to the dollar’s strength and was further weighed down by mixed services PMI data, while ECB minutes highlighted the risk of missing inflation targets in 2026 and 2027 if interest rates remain unchanged. The British pound held firm as UK Prime Minister Starmer moved to bolster confidence in Chancellor Reeves amid recent political uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen came under pressure, with USD/JPY briefly rising above the 145.00 level on the back of strong US data and an improved risk tone.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
