- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.35-32.37 this morning supportive level at 32.30 resistance level at 32.50
- SET Index: 1,115.7 (+0.5%), 2 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,227.4 (+0.47%), 2 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.588 (+1.46 bps), 2 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.30 (+4.0 bps), 2 July 2025
- US ADP payrolls decline for first time in 2 years
- US reaches trade agreement with Vietnam ahead of tariff deadline
- Political uncertainty in the UK
- China’s Caixin manufacturing rebounds
- The dollar edges up slightly
US ADP payrolls decline for first time in 2 years
ADP’s June employment report revealed an unexpected drop, with jobs falling by 33,000—down sharply from May’s revised 29,000 gain and far below the anticipated 95,000. The decline was driven mainly by a sharp reduction in service-sector employment, as service providers cut 66,000 jobs, notably in professional and business services, healthcare, and education. The data points to a cooling labor market, with average job growth over the past three months slowing to just 18,700 in May. Wage growth also softened, with job changers seeing pay increases slow to 6.8%.
US reaches trade agreement with Vietnam ahead of tariff deadline
President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam after weeks of negotiations and just ahead of a looming deadline that would have triggered higher tariffs on Vietnamese imports. Under the deal, a 20% tariff will apply to Vietnamese exports to the US, and a 40% tariff will be imposed on goods identified as being transshipped through Vietnam. Trump stated that Vietnam had committed to eliminating all tariffs on US imports. In addition, Trump said he is not considering delaying his July 9 deadline for higher tariffs to resume and renewed his threat to cut off talks and impose duty rates on several nations.
Political uncertainty in the UK
UK Prime Minister Starmer declined to confirm whether Chancellor Reeves would stay in her position and did not rule out the possibility of tax increases. However, shortly afterward, his Press Secretary stated that the Chancellor retains the Prime Minister’s full support.
China’s Caixin manufacturing rebounds
China’s manufacturing activity rebounded better than expected in June, with the Caixin PMI rising to 50.4 from 48.3. The survey shows improved supply and demand following a US trade-war truce, though external demand stayed weak. This easing may reduce the need for immediate stimulus, but growth risks remain later in the year. The private survey was more optimistic than the official PMI, which stayed below 50.
The dollar edges up slightly
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.588, +1.46 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.601, +1.79 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.30, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.46, moving in a range of 32.35 – 32.37 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.30 – 32.50 today. The dollar edged slightly higher, largely supported by weakness in the GBP stemming from UK-specific political risks, though gains in the index were limited due to soft US data—particularly a disappointing ADP report showing a loss of 33,000 jobs. Attention now turns to Thursday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release ahead of the US Independence Day holiday. The euro saw mixed price action, ending marginally lower after recovering from early losses, with recent ECB commentary having little market impact. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen traded within a narrow range amid ongoing trade-related concerns, with Japan’s negotiator Akazawa emphasizing that Tokyo should avoid entering any agreement that could undermine national interests merely to meet a timeline.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
