- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.83-32.88 this morning supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.95
- SET Index: 1,173.4 (-0.5%), 22 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,842.0 (-0.04%), 22 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.887 (+0.60 bps), 22 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.54 (-4.0 bps), 22 May 2025
- Trump tax bill narrowly passes House
- US PMI improves in May despite tariff-fueled price pressures
- Fed’s Waller offers route to rate cuts in second half of year
- Euro-zone PMI unexpectedly shrinks
- Japan CPI grows more than expected in April
- Dollar gained on upbeat PMI data
Trump tax bill narrowly passes House
The House passed Trump’s tax bill 215-214, averting a year-end tax hike but adding to the deficit. The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion and extends previous tax cuts, now heading to the Senate.
US PMI improves in May despite tariff-fueled price pressures
In May, S&P Global Flash PMIs exceeded expectations, with manufacturing and services both rising to 52.3, pushing the composite index up to 52.1. Services led the rebound, though still below the 2024 average, while service exports saw their sharpest drop since early 2020. Sentiment improved on easing trade tensions, but employment dipped on concerns over demand and rising costs. Prices increased at the fastest rate since August 2022, mainly due to tariffs, prompting firms to stockpile inputs at record levels.
Fed’s Waller offers route to rate cuts in second half of year
Waller struck a cautious tone, noting the Fed could consider rate cuts in H2 if tariffs ease to around 10% by July. He’s more optimistic on tariffs than last month, views the current policy path positively, and sees firms delaying but not canceling plans. He reiterated that tariff-related price increases are likely one-off and typically not a focus for central banks.
Euro-zone PMI unexpectedly shrinks
The Composite S&P Global PMI dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April, missing expectations of 50.6 and falling below the 50 threshold. The decline was mainly driven by the services sector, a key growth driver recently.
Japan CPI grows more than expected in April
Japan’s CPI rose more than expected in April, driven by strong spring wage hikes. Headline inflation held at 3.6%, while core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose to 3.5% y/y, above forecasts and the highest since early 2023. Core-core CPI, excluding both food and energy, increased to 3% from 2.9%, staying well above the BOJ’s 2% target.
Dollar gained on upbeat PMI data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.887, +0.60 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.885, +0.83 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.54, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.68, moving in a range of 32.83 – 32.88 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60 – 32.95 today. The dollar strengthened and briefly regained the 100.00 level, supported by stronger-than-expected PMIs. Markets also focused on the US tax bill, which passed the House and awaits Senate Committee review. Fed officials, including Waller, noted fiscal concerns and suggested rate cuts could be possible later in the year if tariff pressures ease. The euro weakened as the dollar rebounded, slipping back below the 1.1300 level. The currency was pressured by disappointing PMI data and ECB Minutes indicating some members would have supported a 50bps rate cut in April. The Japanese yen edged lower as the USD recovered, pushing USD/JPY back toward the 144.00 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
