- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.15-33.21 this morning supportive level at 33.00 resistance level at 33.30
- SET Index: 1,187.1 (-0.73%), 19 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,963.6 (+0.09%), 19 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.873 (+0.52 bps), 19 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.46 (+3.0 bps), 19 May 2025
- Fed’s Williams says U.S. monetary policy in good place
- Euro Area inflation confirmed stable in April
- China's industrial output and retail sales slowed in April
- Thailand’s GDP growth in the first quarter exceed the expectation
- Dollar retreats on US ratings downgrade; trade tensions persist
Fed’s Williams says U.S. monetary policy in good place
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams acknowledged on Monday that investors are taking a look at how they invest in U.S. assets while noting he’s seen no large-scale move away from the nation, adding that the U.S. central bank can take its time before deciding its next interest rate move. The New York Fed chief also said "the economy is doing very well" at the moment amid lots of uncertainty and some signs in recent data that there could be trouble ahead. Fed interest rate policy is slightly restrictive of growth and is "well positioned" for what lies ahead. "It’s going to take some time to get a clear view" on how the economy is faring given all the government policy shifts and "we can take our time" to figure out where interest rate policy stands.
Euro Area inflation confirmed stable in April
According to the official data of the Eurostat, the Euro area annual inflation rate (HICP) was confirmed at 2.2% in April 2025, stable compared to March. The lowest annual rates were registered in France, Cyprus and Denmark. The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania, Estonia and Hungary. Compared with March 2025, annual inflation fell in thirteen Member States, remained stable in three and rose in eleven. In April 2025, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+1.80 pp), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.57 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.15 pp) and energy (-0.35 pp). Meanwhile, the Euro area’s HICP excluding Energy and Food stood at 2.7% in April, slightly increased from the previous month of 2.5%.
China's industrial output and retail sales slowed in April
Chinese industrial production grew 6.1%yoy in April, more than expectations for growth of 5.7% but slowed from the 7.7% rise seen in the prior month. Retail sales grew 5.1%yoy, slower than the 5.9% recorded in March. Conversely, unemployment fell to 5.1% in April, compared to 5.2% the previous month. The data followed firmer-than-expected exports earlier this month that economists said were supported by exporters rerouting shipments and countries buying more materials from China amid a re-ordering of global trade due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Thailand’s GDP growth in the first quarter exceed the expectation
Thailand’s GDP grew by 3.1%yoy in Q1 of 2025, compared to the forecasts of 2.9%. However, the latest result eased from an upwardly revised 3.3% expansion in Q4 of 2024, which was the strongest yearly rise since Q3 of 2022. Private consumption, government spending, and gross fixed investment showed slower growth. However, merchandise exports increased faster than imports, contributing positively to GDP, as factories rushed to ship goods ahead of Trump's new tariffs. In addition, NESDC revised down the GDP growth projection in 2025 to grow 1.3-2.3% (mid-range of 1.8%) compared to the previous assessment of 2.3-3.3%.
Dollar retreats on US ratings downgrade; trade tensions persist
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.873, +0.52 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.870, +0.31 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.46, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.045 Moving in a range of 33.15-33.21 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.00-33.30 today. The U.S. dollar weakened broadly on Monday, hitting a more than one-week low against the safe-haven yen, Swiss franc and euro as markets digested a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating, despite rising optimism for U.S. trade deals and a thaw in relations with China that eased fears of a global recession. Meanwhile, gold prices rose, sparking risk aversion across global markets.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
