- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.10-33.18 this morning supportive level at 33.00 resistance level at 33.30
- SET Index: 1,194.5 (-1.8%), 15 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,916.9 (+0.4%), 15 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.883 (-2.15 bps), 15 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.45 (-8.0 bps), 15 May 2025
- US retail sales barely rise, suggesting some spending pullback
- US PPI fell unexpectedly in April
- Powell hints at revising the 2020 Fed framework
- UK economy grows 0.7%, its best in a year
- The dollar faced slight pressure following a series of data releases
US retail sales barely rise, suggesting some spending pullback
US retail sales edged up slightly in April, rising 0.1% versus expectations of no growth, following a 1.4% increase in March. However, the retail control group, which feeds into GDP calculations, unexpectedly fell by 0.2%, missing forecasts for a 0.3% gain and down from a previous 0.4% rise. Most retail categories were flat or declined, with the strongest increases seen in restaurants and bars (+1.2%), building and garden supplies (+0.8%), and furniture/electronics (+0.3%).
US PPI fell unexpectedly in April
US PPI fell 0.5% in April, the biggest drop in five years, defying expectations of a 0.2% rise, mainly due to weaker margins. Annual PPI slowed to 2.4% from a revised 3.4%, below the 2.5% forecast. Core PPI declined 0.4% M/M, while the Y/Y rate held at 3.1%, matching expectations. The data aligns with the softer April CPI and points to a favorable Core PCE outlook. March figures were revised higher, notably in airline services, from -4.0% to -1.6%.
Powell hints at revising the 2020 Fed framework
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are evaluating potential updates to the monetary policy framework, including how they view employment shortfalls and pursue the 2% inflation target. The current framework, introduced in 2020 during a period of low rates and low inflation, has faced criticism for being too narrowly focused. Powell noted that the revised approach will be designed to handle a broader range of economic conditions. The review will consider shifts in the economy since 2020, such as more frequent and lasting supply shocks, while reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored at 2%.
UK economy grows 0.7%, its best in a year
The UK economy grew 0.7% in Q1, its strongest in a year, driven by services and construction, but economists warn the growth may be short-lived due to tax hikes and the trade war. Meanwhile, euro-area growth was revised down to 0.3% in Q1, below the initial estimate of 0.4%.
The dollar faced slight pressure following a series of data releases
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.883, -2.15 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.878, -2.15 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.45, -8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.40, moving in a range of 33.10 – 33.18 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.00 – 33.30 today. The dollar weakened against major currencies, alongside lower US Treasury yields, as markets anticipated two 25bps rate cuts by year-end, influenced by weak US data such as disappointing retail sales and softer PPI figures. Comments from Fed officials, including Powell, had little impact. The euro fluctuated around the 1.1200 mark, benefiting only slightly from the dollar’s decline. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen gained strength as demand for safe-haven assets rose following the weak data and the drop in US yields.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
