- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.39-33.445 this morning supportive level at 33.20 resistance level at 33.60
- SET Index: 1,210.9 (+0.4%), 9 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,844.2 (+3.2%), 12 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.852 (+2.88 bps), 9 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.45 (+8.0 bps), 12 May 2025
- US and China agree to 90-day tariff cut
- Fed speakers aligned with Chair Powell’s post-FOMC stance
- China exports beat expectations in April despite tariff pressures
- China’s April consumer prices dip, raising deflation concerns
- The dollar gained, fueled by optimism over the US-China 90-day tariff truce
US and China agree to 90-day tariff cut
The US and China agreed to a 115-point tariff reduction for 90 days, with the US lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China cutting its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. Both sides will retain a 10% base tariff. The 20% U.S. fentanyl tariff will stay. In addition, Reuters reported that the deal doesn’t address e-commerce “de minimis” exemptions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized the 30% level is a “floor,” while the previous 145% remains a “ceiling,” noting tariffs are unlikely to fall below 10%. He confirmed no Trump-Xi call is currently scheduled but left open the option to revert to prior levels.
Fed speakers aligned with Chair Powell’s post-FOMC stance
FOMC members backed a wait-and-see stance on trade policy, described monetary policy as moderately restrictive, and saw the economy as solid, though voter Williams noted signs of reduced discretionary spending.
China exports beat expectations in April despite tariff pressures
China’s exports rose 8.1% in April, overcoming a sharp 21% decline in shipments to the U.S., as Chinese exporters redirected goods to markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the European Union. Imports, meanwhile, slipped just 0.2% compared to the previous year—less than the expected 6% drop—indicating that domestic demand has remained relatively stable despite China’s 125% tariffs on US imports. Consequently, the trade surplus narrowed to $96.18 billion, falling short of forecasts and down from $102.64 billion in March.
China’s April consumer prices dip, raising deflation concerns
China’s consumer prices declined for a third consecutive month in April, as weak domestic demand and U.S. tariffs continued to weigh on inflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped 0.1% year-on-year, matching both the previous month’s drop and market forecasts. At the same time, producer prices fell for the 31st straight month, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) down 2.7%, widening from a 2.5% decrease in March.
The dollar gained, fueled by optimism over the US-China 90-day tariff truce
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.852, +2.88 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.846, +3.20 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.45, +8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.10, moving in a range of 33.39 – 33.445 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.20 – 33.60 today. The dollar strengthened broadly following the US-China agreement to reduce tariffs by 115% on each other’s goods, marking the Dollar index’s biggest gain since last November. With few major data releases and minimal new insight from Fed officials, market focus now shifts to Tuesday’s upcoming US CPI report. The euro weakened under pressure from a stronger dollar, slipping below the 1.1100 level. Sentiment was further dampened by fresh criticism from President Trump, who accused the EU of being harsh on drug prices, the toughest on drug subsidies, and even “nastier than China.” The Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY holding solidly above 148.00, as safe-haven demand eased and US yields rose following the de-escalation of the US-China trade tensions.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
