- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.69-34.71 this morning supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.80
- SET Index: 1,354.3 (-1.00%), 13 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,836.2 (+0.16%), 13 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.387 (+3.26 bps), 13 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.79 (+2.0 bps), 13 Jan 2025
- NY Fed survey shows US consumers expect persistent inflation
- Mexico to offer nearshoring incentives to reduce China imports
- Chinese trade surplus hits $1 trillion on pre-Trump exports
- China plans to expand visa-free entry to more countries
- The US dollar keeps rising ahead of the CPI report
NY Fed survey shows US consumers expect persistent inflation
The New York Fed's December consumer inflation expectations showed mixed results. 1-year ahead expectations held at 3%, while 3-year expectations rose to 3.0% from 2.6%, and 5-year expectations fell to 2.7% from 2.9%. Job security improved, with the probability of losing a job in the next year dropping by 1.6% to 11.9%, and the probability of voluntary job departures decreasing by 2.0% to 18.2%. The chance of finding a new job if one’s current job was lost fell to 50.2%, the lowest since April 2021. Additionally, expected food prices rose, while gas prices dropped to their lowest since September 2022.
Mexico to offer nearshoring incentives to reduce China imports
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed a strategy to cut imports from China in order to boost domestic industry and strengthen trade ties with the US and Canada. Sheinbaum outlined plans to provide incentives for nearshoring, including tax breaks, and to create sector-specific plans aimed at increasing the local content of Mexican-made goods. A new decree outlining these incentives for both Mexican and foreign companies will be released on January 17.
Chinese trade surplus hits $1 trillion on pre-Trump exports
China's trade surplus reached a record $992 billion in 2024, a 21% increase from the previous year, as exporters sought to offset weak domestic demand and prepare for President-elect Donald Trump's return to office. December exports rose nearly 11% to $336 billion, the second-highest monthly total, while total exports for the year hit $3.6 trillion. Imports grew 1% in December, better than the expected 1.5% decline. Despite strong export volumes, Chinese exporters are earning less due to falling prices caused by domestic deflation, with export volumes up 7.3% through November, outpacing a 5.4% rise in export values.
China plans to expand visa-free entry to more countries
China plans to expand its unilateral visa-free entry policy to more countries as part of efforts to boost its struggling tourism industry and economy. The government stated the plan would be rolled out “in an orderly manner,” without specifying a timeline or the countries involved. This follows last year's historic move to ease visa rules for dozens of countries. Currently, citizens of 38 countries can travel visa-free, and China has also relaxed entry rules for transit passengers. Additionally, the State Council announced Monday that local governments are encouraged to offer vouchers to stimulate tourism spending and issue special bonds for cultural and tourism projects.
The US dollar keeps rising ahead of the CPI report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.387, +3.26 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.38, +4.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.79, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.77, moving in a range of 34.69 – 34.71 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50 – 34.80 today. The dollar edged slightly higher at the start of the week, continuing the trend following Friday's strong US payrolls report. There were no major macro updates or Fed comments, with market participants awaiting the US CPI data on Wednesday. The euro weakened, briefly falling below 1.0200 against the dollar before recovering, amid little currency-specific news. The Japanese yen saw a slight gain, benefiting from haven flows.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
