- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.73-32.775 this morning supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.90
- SET Index: 1,242.4 (-0.1%), 31 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,339.4 (-0.37%), 31 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.503 (-1.41 bps), 31 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.37 (-1.0 bps), 31 July 2025
- Trump announces updated tariffs ahead of deadline
- Core PCE picks up in June
- BOJ keeps rates unchanged, lifts price outlook
- China manufacturing PMI shrinks more than expected in July
- Dollar firms on robust US data and weaker yen
Trump announces updated tariffs ahead of deadline
President Trump announced a 19% tariff on imports from Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia, and a 20% tariff on goods from Taiwan. He also extended the tariff pause on Mexico by 90 days to allow more time for trade negotiations. Additionally, he introduced a range of new tariffs, including a 10% global minimum and rates of 15% or higher for countries with trade surpluses with the US. Meanwhile, some countries, such as Canada, saw existing tariffs raised—from 25% to 35%.
Core PCE picks up in June
In June, core PCE rose 2.8% year-over-year, above expectations and Fed Chair Powell’s 2.7% forecast, with the prior reading revised up to match. Headline PCE also exceeded estimates, rising 2.6% Y/Y. Monthly gains for both core and headline PCE were 0.3%, in line with forecasts. The data underscores the Fed’s challenge in reaching its 2% inflation target. Personal income rose 0.3% (vs. 0.2% expected), while real consumption edged up 0.1%.
BOJ keeps rates unchanged, lifts price outlook
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its short-term interest rate at 0.5%, as expected, citing slowing growth but projecting inflation will gradually rise to meet its 2% target between fiscal 2025 and 2027. It emphasized high uncertainty around trade policy and its potential impact on the economy, noting real interest rates remain extremely low. The BoJ reaffirmed its commitment to adjusting policy as needed and signaled further rate hikes if conditions align with forecasts. It also warned that prolonged trade uncertainty could dampen wage growth by pushing firms to prioritize cost-cutting. In its latest outlook, the BoJ raised core CPI forecasts through 2027 and upgraded FY2025 GDP projections. In press conference, Governor Ueda said the central outlook remains unchanged, with growth expected to slow and underlying inflation to stall.
China manufacturing PMI shrinks more than expected in July
China’s factory activity fell to a three-month low in July, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3 from 49.7, below forecasts and the 50-mark indicating contraction. Non-manufacturing also weakened to 50.1 from 50.5, missing expectations, as exports slowed and domestic demand remained soft.
Dollar firms on robust US data and weaker yen
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.503, -1.41 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.501, -1.59 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.37, -1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.69, moving in a range of 32.73 – 32.775 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60 – 32.90 today. The dollar strengthened modestly on Thursday, buoyed by the yen weakness and a string of stronger-than-expected US data, including headline and core PCE, employment costs, and Chicago PMI. The euro traded sideways with little direction amid mixed German inflation data and a lack of major eurozone catalysts. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen came under pressure from the firmer dollar and comments from BoJ Governor Ueda, who signaled no major change in the central outlook, reaffirming expectations of slower growth and stalled inflation.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
