- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.77 – 33.785 this morning, supportive level at 33.65 resistance level at 33.85
- SET Index: 1,518.59 (-1.68%), 30 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,580.07 (-1.82%), 30 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.158 (-0.84bps), 30 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.940 (-4.00bps), 30 Oct 2026
- US Chicago PMI falls below expectations, signaling slower business expansion
- Eurozone growth beats expectations despite higher energy costs
- German growth beats forecasts while inflation falls below expectations
- BOJ delivers hawkish hold as inflation reaches target
- Thailand’s current account swings to deficit as imports surge
- The dollar is expected to remain firm despite potential political gridlock after the 3 November midterm elections
US Chicago PMI falls below expectations, signaling slower business expansion
The Chicago PMI declined to 55.3 in October 2026, from 58.8 in September, missing market expectations of 56.1, but remaining above the 50-point expansion threshold. Production and new orders moderated, while employment strengthened to its highest level since April 2021. Meanwhile, rising input costs highlighted persistent inflationary pressures. The weaker reading suggests softer business momentum, potentially limiting USD gains ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI release.
Eurozone growth beats expectations despite higher energy costs
Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% QoQ in Q3, exceeding the 0.2% market consensus, while annual growth reached 1.3%.
Economic resilience was supported by investment, domestic consumption and infrastructure spending. Germany grew 0.2% QoQ, while Spain and the Netherlands expanded 0.6% each. Nevertheless, elevated energy prices and borrowing costs remain major downside risks, potentially constraining growth in the coming quarters.
German growth beats forecasts while inflation falls below expectations
Germany’s GDP expanded 0.2% QoQ in Q3 2026, above the 0.1% forecast, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of recovery, although growth remained reliant on government spending. Meanwhile, EU-harmonised inflation slowed to 2.8% YoY in October from 3.3%, below the 3.1% consensus, as energy inflation eased to 12.2% and core inflation fell to 2.1%. The data signal improving economic resilience and softer price pressures, potentially moderating expectations for aggressive ECB tightening.
BOJ delivers hawkish hold as inflation reaches target
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% after September’s hike, while declaring that underlying inflation is broadly consistent with its 2% target. The BOJ raised its FY2027 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.4% and highlighted upside price risks, signaling that another rate hike could come as early as December.
Thailand’s current account swings to deficit as imports surge
Thailand recorded a USD 1.6 billion current-account deficit in September, reversing a USD 2.4 billion surplus in August, as imports increased sharply, partly reflecting data center and technology investment. Despite the deficit, the economy improved from the previous month, supported by merchandise exports and private investment, while tourism activity weakened. The deterioration in the external balance may reduce near-term support for the Thai baht.
The dollar is expected to remain firm despite potential political gridlock after the 3 November midterm elections
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.158 (-0.84bps). The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.089, -0.96bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.940 (-4.00bps). USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.70, moving in the range 33.77 – 33.785 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.65-33.85 today. Strong US GDP growth of 3.4% QoQ annualized and PCE inflation of 3.6% YoY support the higher-for-longer interest-rate narrative. However, weaker technology-sector sentiment and lower Treasury yields could constrain dollar gains. The next direction will depend primarily on US labor-market data, business activity indicators and changing Fed expectations.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
