- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.735 – 33.74 this morning, supportive level at 33.60 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,566.1 (-0.57%), 28 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,744.0 (+0.28%), 28 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.22 (-1.82 bps), 28 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.05 (+6.00 bps), 28 Oct 2026
- Fed held rates steady despite sticky inflation but keeps door open to further tightening
- Bank of Canada raised the policy rate as market expected; another hike possible
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the rate unchanged despite hawkish stance
- MPC maintained the key rate as uneven growth amid rising inflation risks
- Thailand overhauls its oil pricing structure, lowering ex-refinery prices
- A less-hawkish Fed weighed on dollar, while sticky inflation kept upward pressure on long-term U.S. yields
Fed held rates steady despite sticky inflation but keeps door open to further tightening
The Federal Reserve held steady rates as expected at 3.75-4.00% after rising rates last month for the first time in more than three years. The two dissenting officials are in favor of a quarter-point increase. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh noted that financial conditions have tightened since September, with credit becoming more restrictive for some businesses and households, supporting the Fed’s progress toward its inflation goal. While the future rate decisions will remain data-dependent, with helping the Committee assess the appropriate policy stance needed to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Warsh also announced a change to the FOMC’s meeting schedule that will still meet eight times in 2027, but one of them will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy starting. In 2028, two meetings will be dedicated to strategy and six to setting policy.
Bank of Canada raised the policy rate as market expected; another hike possible
The Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.50%, its first hike since July 2023, citing rising inflation risks from higher energy prices and concerns that these pressures could spill over into broader inflation. The BoC raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.1% from 2.0%, while upgrading its 2026 growth outlook to 1.0% from 0.7%. With inflation reaching 3.2% in September, above the Bank’s 1–3% target range, signaling that further rate hikes may be needed, although policymakers will proceed cautiously amid continued economic uncertainty.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the rate unchanged despite hawkish stance
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on the 28th held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.75%, defying most market expectations, with the vote split narrowly 4-3 between holding and hiking. In its statement, the central bank said the committee agreed that tighter monetary policy would likely be needed depending on the economic outlook.
MPC maintained the key rate as uneven growth amid rising inflation risks
The Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.00%. The central bank forecasts that the economy would grow 2.4% this year and 2.1% in 2027, compared with its June forecasts of 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, supported by stronger momentum in exports, and technology and AI-related private investment. However, overall economic growth remains below potential, while SMEs continue to face significant adaptation challenges and intense competition. While inflation is expected to rise temporarily, thereafter, inflation should ease on favorable base effects and subdued domestic demand.
Thailand overhauls its oil pricing structure, lowering ex-refinery prices
Thailand’s Energy Ministry approved a major overhaul of the domestic oil pricing formula, effective 29 October 2026, removing assumed freight, insurance and transportation-loss costs linked to Singapore from the ex-refinery price calculation. The new methodology will reduce ex-refinery prices by THB0.0875–0.3548 per liter, generating estimated savings of THB10.8bn per year. Diesel B7 will see the largest reduction of THB0.3548/liter, followed by Gasohol 95 at THB0.3203/liter. The measure should help ease domestic energy costs and alleviate cost-of-living pressures.
A less-hawkish Fed weighed on dollar, while sticky inflation kept upward pressure on long-term U.S. yields
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.22, -1.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.15, -3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.05, +6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.76 Moving in a range of 33.735-33.74 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60-33.80 today. The U.S. dollar slipped after the Fed delivered a relatively less-hawkish hold, despite keeping the door open to further tightening. The Thai Baht was largely unchanged after the BOT’s decision. While the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield as persistent inflation concerns kept upward pressure on longer-term yields despite a more cautious near-term policy stance.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
