- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.555 – 33.565 this morning, supportive level at 33.45 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,571.7 (-0.38%), 12 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,805.5 (-0.02%), 13 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.392 (-1.58 bps), 12 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.21 (-3.00 bps), 13 Oct 2026
- U.S. ADP Employment change 4-week average slowed
- Global growth stays resilient, but inflation and energy pressures cloud the outlook
- Japan’s producer price inflation eased more than expected in September
- OPEC continues to slash its 2026 oil demand outlook, potentially tightening the global supply-demand balance
- Oil Fuel Fund deficit surpasses THB 100 billion, prompting cuts to subsidies and higher levies on gasoline
- NESDC to revise Thailand’s GDP figures after MPI methodology update
- Dollar retreats as markets await CPI
U.S. ADP Employment change 4-week average slowed
The latest ADP National Employment Report Preliminary Estimate signals that U.S. private-sector hiring remained positive but lost some momentum, with private employers added an average of 24,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending September 26, slightly below 25,250 in the previous reading. Hiring strengthened for five consecutive weeks before slowing in the latest estimate. Despite the moderation, the pace remains significantly stronger than in early August, when the four-week average was 9,500 jobs per week.
Global growth stays resilient, but inflation and energy pressures cloud the outlook
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) in October 2026, global growth remains resilient but increasingly uneven, with the economy projected to expand by 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, unchanged for 2026 and revised moderately upward for 2027, relative to the projections in the recent April WEO. Key risks include geopolitical and energy shocks, persistent inflation, fiscal vulnerabilities, trade tensions, and an AI-driven market correction, while limited policy space leaves economies increasingly exposed to new shocks.
Japan’s producer price inflation eased more than expected in September
Japan’s producer price inflation slowed more than expected in September, easing from 7.6% to 6.8% y/y, while the PPI fell 0.3% m/m for a second straight month. This was largely driven by lower agricultural and petroleum prices, with agriculture, forestry and fishery prices plunging 8.8% m/m and petroleum and coal products falling 2.2%. However, industrial cost pressures remained persist, as inflation accelerated in chemicals, plastics, and information and communications equipment, while nonferrous metals stayed exceptionally high.
OPEC continues to slash its 2026 oil demand outlook, potentially tightening the global supply-demand balance
OPEC sharply downgraded its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 b/d, from 600,000 previously and nearly 1.4 million in April, marking a fifth consecutive monthly cut. The weakness is concentrated in OECD economies, where demand is expected to contract, while non-OECD markets continue to provide modest growth. However, OPEC turned more optimistic on 2027, raising its demand growth forecast to 2.4 million b/d from 2.2 million previously. With non-OPEC+ supply growth expected at only 620,000 b/d in 2027, stronger demand could increase reliance on OPEC+ supply and tighten the global oil market.
Oil Fuel Fund deficit surpasses THB 100 billion, prompting cuts to subsidies and higher levies on gasoline
As of 11 October 2026, the oil account stood at THB -60.8 billion and the LPG account at THB -40.9 billion, reflecting ongoing price support measures. From 13 October 2026, the Oil Fuel Fund Management Committee reduced compensation for diesel and gasohol while increasing contributions from gasoline, making near-term retail fuel price reductions. Tighter fuel subsidy support implies persistent domestic fuel costs, which could weigh on Thai household consumption and business input costs while helping stabilize public finances.
NESDC to revise Thailand’s GDP figures after MPI methodology update
The updated MPI, which better captures new industrial activities, showed MPI’s August 2026 up 4.4%y/y, prompting the NESDC to realign GDP calculations for 2026. Meanwhile, the data revision will not be completed in time for inclusion in the Q3/2026 GDP release scheduled for November 2026. The NESDC will expedite the revision of historical data for the first two quarters of the year as soon as possible. For Q4/2026, the situation will need to be reassessed, with a clearer picture of the overall economy expected to emerge in early 2027.
Dollar retreats as markets await CPI
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.392, -1.58 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.316, -0.29 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.21, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.605 Moving in a range of 33.555-33.565 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.45-33.70 today. The dollar gave back against all the major currencies, longer-term Treasury yields moved lower, and stocks were modestly lower after a volatile session as markets absorbed Fed’s member comments on one rate hike this year, while the focus moving to U.S. inflation data today.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
