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Daily Market Insight: 30 August 2023

30 ส.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.99-35.03 this morning supportive level at 34.85 resistance level at 35.15

·         SET Index: 1,568.8 (+0.37%), 29 Aug 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,497.6 (+1.44%), 29 Aug 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.78 (-0.88 bps), 29 Aug 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.12 (-8.00 bps), 29 Aug 2023

 

  • U.S. job openings fall to 8.8 million in July
  • US consumer confidence drops in August on inflation worries
  • China's factory activity likely extended declines in August
  • Dollar drops on jobs data; yen rises from 10-month low

 

U.S. job openings fall to 8.8 million in July U.S. job openings dropped to their lowest level in more than two years in July, but remain relatively elevated, potentially prompting Federal Reserve officials to keep interest rates higher for longer to help loosen a tight labor market. A total of 8.8M job openings were recorded on the last business day of July, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. The measure of labor market demand, which dipped by 338,000 from the prior month, was the lowest since March 2021. Economists had predicted the figure would come in at just under 9.5M. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of quits dropped by 253,000 to 3.5M, a signal that employees may be becoming slightly less confident in their ability to quickly switch jobs in an uncertain economic environment.

 

US consumer confidence drops in August on inflation worries U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in August after two straight monthly increases amid renewed concerns about inflation. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 106.1 this month from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index retreating to 116.0 from the previously reported 117.0. The decline erased the back-to-back increases in June and July. "Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board in Washington. "The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000.“

 

China's factory activity likely extended declines in August China's factory activity likely contracted for a fifth straight month in August, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, as weak demand threatens recovery prospects in the world's second-largest economy and pressures officials to prop up growth. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to have edged up to 49.4 in August, a marginal improvement on the 49.3 recorded in July, according to the median forecast of 34 economists in the poll. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis while below that signals contraction. Only two respondents forecast readings of 50 or above. The last time the indicator pointed to contraction for more than three consecutive months was in the six months to October 2019, before the pandemic, suggesting negative sentiment among factory managers has become entrenched.

 

Dollar drops on jobs data; yen rises from 10-month low The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.78, -0.88 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.78, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.12, -8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.18. Moving in a range of 34.99-35.03 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.85-35.15 today. The U.S. dollar fell on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. job openings fell in July, as investors await more comprehensive labor market numbers in this week's jobs report for August. The Japanese yen also gained, after earlier falling to a 10-month low. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, dropped 338,000 to 8.827 million on the last day of July, the lowest level since March 2021. U.S. economic data has shown resilience in the face of higher interest rates, but investors are on guard for signs of any lagging impacts from the monetary tightening. Investors have raised bets that the Federal Reserve could continue hiking rates or keep rates higher for longer as it tries to bring inflation down closer to its 2% target while the job market remains tight.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC