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Daily Market Insight: 12 July 2023

12 ก.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.66-34.76 this morning supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.80

·         SET Index: 1,497.0 (+0.00%), 11 Jul 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,439.3 (+0.67%), 10 Jul 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58 (-0.11 bps), 11 Jul 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.99 (-2.0 bps), 11 Jul 2023

 

  • US wholesale inventories revised up in boost to second-quarter GDP
  • UK wage growth matches record high but job market shows signs of cooling
  • Japan's wholesale inflation slows for 6th straight month
  • Dollar dives to two-month low, pound scales 15-month peaks on wage growth data

 

US wholesale inventories revised up in boost to second-quarter GDP U.S. wholesale inventories were unchanged in May after declining for two straight months, suggesting inventory investment could support economic growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said on Monday that wholesale inventories were unchanged instead of dipping 0.1% as previously reported last month. Stocks at wholesalers fell 0.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that inventories would be unrevised. Inventories are a key part of gross domestic product. They increased 3.7% on a year-on-year basis in May. Private inventory investment rose at its slowest pace in 1-1/2 years in the first quarter, helping to restrict GDP growth to a 2.0% annualized pace in that three-month period. The careful inventory management amid expectations of weaker demand because of higher borrowing costs is weighing on production at factories.

 

UK wage growth matches record high but job market shows signs of cooling A key measure of British wages rose at the joint fastest pace on record, but official data also showed signs that the inflationary heat in the labor market is cooling, offering the prospect of relief for the Bank of England. Sterling edged up but yields on two-year British government bonds, which are sensitive to speculation about interest rates, fell sharply, suggesting investors were dialing back their bets on how much higher the BoE would go with its run of rate hikes. The 7.3% surge in basic earnings in the three months to May compared with the same period a year ago was the joint highest alongside April's growth - which was revised up on Tuesday from an initial 7.2% - and the second quarter of 2021, according to data which goes back to 2001.

 

Japan's wholesale inflation slows for 6th straight month Japan's wholesale inflation slowed for a sixth straight month in June due to sliding fuel and commodity prices, a sign the cost-push pressure that drove up consumer prices is steadily easing. The data underscores the central bank's view that consumer inflation will slow in coming months as global commodity prices slide from last year's peak levels. The corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, rose 4.1% in June from a year earlier, data showed, slower than a median market forecast for a 4.3% increase. The rise, which followed a 5.2% gain in May, was the slowest annual pace since April 2021, data by the BOJ showed.

 

Dollar dives to two-month low, pound scales 15-month peaks on wage growth data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, -0.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.99, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.90 Moving in a range of 34.66-34.76 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The dollar declined to a two-month low against a major currency index on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials signaled that the U.S. central bank is near the end of its tightening cycle, while sterling hit a 15-month high after pay growth exceeded expectations. Against the yen, the dollar fell to a four-week trough of 140.17. It last traded down 0.7% at 140.385 yen. The U.S. currency also plunged to its lowest in 2-1/2 years versus the Swiss franc, and was last at 0.8797 francs, down 0.6%. Several Fed officials said on Monday the central bank would likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation but the end to its current monetary policy tightening cycle was getting close.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC