- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.635-34.74 this morning, supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.80
· SET Index: 1,652.5 (-0.42%), 23 Feb 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,012.3 (+0.53%), 23 Feb 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (-1.87 bps), 23 Feb 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.88 (-5.00 bps), 22 Feb 2023
- U.S. labor market resilient; inflation hotter in fourth quarter
- Euro zone inflation marginally higher in Jan; core also lifted
- Japan CPI inflation hits 41-year high in Jan as BOJ changes loom
- Dollar to build on gains as rate-hike path unlikely to narrow until Fed meets next
U.S. labor market resilient; inflation hotter in fourth quarter The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to a persistently tight labor market, and further fueling fears that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates higher than anticipated. Those worries were amplified by other data on Thursday showing inflation was much stronger than initially thought in the fourth quarter, which raises the risk of higher readings when the government publishes January's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price data on Friday. While the Fed is expected to deliver two additional rate hikes of 25 basis points in March and May, financial markets are betting on another increase in June. The U.S. central bank has raised its policy rate by 450 basis points since last March from near zero to a 4.50%-4.75% range.
Euro zone inflation marginally higher in Jan; core also lifted Euro zone inflation was only a touch higher in January than earlier estimated, Eurostat said on Thursday, confirming that price growth is now well past its peak, even if underlying price pressures still show no signs of abating. Consumer price inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro eased to 8.6% in January from 9.2% a month earlier, coming in just above the 8.5% estimated earlier this month, when figures from Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, were not yet included. The data are still likely to make for grim reading at the European Central Bank (ECB) as revisions show core inflation, or price growth excluding volatile food and fuel products, accelerating to 5.3% from 5.2%, confounding initial data for a steady pace. The ECB has raised rates by a combined 3 percentage points since July to tame inflation and policymakers are now getting concerned that what was initially an energy cost-driven surge, is now broadening out to impact all sectors.
Japan CPI inflation hits 41-year high in Jan as BOJ changes loom Japanese consumer inflation rose as expected in January, data showed on Friday, amid rising commodity costs and robust local demand, putting more pressure on the Bank of Japan to potentially tighten policy as it experiences a change in leadership. The national core consumer price index, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food, rose 4.2% in January, compared to 4% in the prior month and in line with market expectations. Including volatile items, nationwide CPI inflation rose 4.3% in January from 4% in the prior month. The index was also at a 41-year high. The reading marks the fourth consecutive month that Japanese inflation has trended at over 40-year highs, as the country struggles with more expensive commodity imports. Rising costs of fuel and utilities were the biggest driver of inflation in recent months, with the trend continuing in January.
Dollar to build on gains as rate-hike path unlikely to narrow until Fed meets next The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, -1.87 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.60, -2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.50-3.00. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.88, -5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.58 Moving in a range of 34.635-34.74 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20-34.70 today. The dollar is likely to build on its recent gains in the weeks ahead as there aren't many catalysts for bears to latch onto that could sway expectations for the three more Federal Reserve rate hikes. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.03% to 104.55. Recent data pointing to signs of economic strength and sticky inflation “can keep the dollar supported in the near term and potentially into the 22 March FOMC meeting,” ING said in a note. In the run-up to the March meeting, however, dollar bears will be hoping that both economic strength and inflation soften enough to cool the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
