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Daily Market Insight: 25 January 2023

25 ม.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.72-32.80 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.85

·         SET Index: 1,682.9 (-0.07%), 24 Jan 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,017.0 (-0.07%), 24 Jan 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.46 (-0.20 bps), 24 Jan 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.46 (-6.00 bps), 24 Jan 2023

 

  • U.S. business activity still soft in early 2023, but outlook perks up
  • Euro zone business activity back to growth in January
  • Australia CPI inflation rises more than expected in Q4, more RBA action likely
  • Oil falls $2/barrel on economic jitters, U.S. crude stock build

 

U.S. business activity still soft in early 2023, but outlook perks up U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, though the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September and business confidence strengthened as the new year began. At the same time, however, a survey from S&P Global out Tuesday showed price pressures ticking higher for the first time since last spring, indicating that inflation is far from licked despite aggressive measures to contain it by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That lifts the odds the U.S. central bank may need to keep up the pressure through higher interest rates, including at next week's first policy meeting of the year. S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite Output Index rose to 46.6 in January - with readings below 50 indicating contraction in activity - from a final reading of 45.0 in December. While that was the highest in three months, companies still reported demand was soft and high inflation was a headwind to customer spending.

 

Euro zone business activity back to growth in January Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, adding to signs the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared and that the currency union may escape recession, a survey showed. S&P Global’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December. January was the first time the index has been above the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, since June and the reading was ahead of the median Reuters poll forecast of 49.8. However, Weil added that a clear deterioration in the economic environment continued to point to at least a mild recession.

 

Australia CPI inflation rises more than expected in Q4, more RBA action likely Australian consumer price index inflation grew more than in December, data showed on Wednesday, pointing to increased pressure on the economy and also giving the Reserve Bank more impetus to keep raising interest rates. CPI inflation grew 1.9% in the three months to December 31 from the prior quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed. The reading was higher than expectations of 1.6%, as well as the prior quarter’s reading of 1.8%. On an annualized basis, CPI inflation rose 7.8%, more than estimates for a rise of 7.5% and the prior quarter’s reading of 7.3%. The reading was also at its highest pace since 1990.  Increased food and housing expenses were the biggest contributors to the reading, while a spike in domestic holidays and electricity costs also factored into the increase.

 

Oil falls $2/barrel on economic jitters, U.S. crude stock build The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.46, -0.20 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.49, -2.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.46, -6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.77 Moving in a range of 32.72-32.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. Crude oil prices slipped on Tuesday on concerns about a global economic slowdown and as preliminary data indicated a bigger than expected build in U.S. oil inventories. Brent futures for March delivery fell $2.06, or 2.3%, to $86.13 a barrel. U.S. crude fell $1.49, or 1.8%, to $80.13 per barrel. U.S. business activity contracted in January for the seventh straight month, though the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September and business confidence strengthened as the new year began. The U.S. economy "still could roll over and some energy traders are still skeptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC