Daily Market Insight

• Powell signals more cuts amid weak hiring • US-China trade frictions continue • UK unemployment rises and wages cool, spurring rate cut bets • Bank of Thailand sees inflation missing target through 2026 • Dollar weakens amid renewed trade tensions

• Trump threatens 100% tariffs after China's export controls • Michigan consumer sentiment index slightly dips • Japan’s decades-old ruling coalition collapses • China’s exports and imports beat forecasts in September • Dollar recovers on hopes of eased US-China tension

• Fed’s Williams sees rate cuts ahead, Barr calls for caution • BLS bringing back staff to get inflation report out • ECB officials reject rate cut amid inflation risks • Thailand to finalize US trade rules by year-end • Philippine central bank delivers surprise rate cut amid growth concerns • Dollar strengthens, reclaims haven status

• FOMC shows inflation caution despite broad support for rate cut • Trump signals Israel-Hamas peace deal near • France’s Lecornu says Macron can name new premier in 48 hours • Thailand unexpectedly holds rates, trims GDP view but leaves door open to more cuts • Dollar holds firm despite lack of US data

• NY Fed finds rising worry about state of job market in September • RBNZ slashes official cash rate by 50bps to 2.50% • World Bank lifts China 2025 growth, flags 2026 slowdown • Thailand launches $1.4B consumer stimulus • Dollar holds firm amid shutdown, data drought

• Trump imposing new 25% large truck tariff starting Nov. 1 • French PM Lecornu resigns after cabinet backlash • Thailand’s inflation remains in negative territory for sixth straight month • Vietnam posts strongest growth since 2022 • Dollar bid amid heavy yen selling

• US ISM services drops on weakest activity since 2020 • Fed flags tariff inflation risk, downplays missing jobs data • Sanae Takaichi poised to become Japan’s first female PM • Dollar ends week on a weaker note

• US layoffs drop, but risks remain • EU plans 50% tariff on steel imports • BoJ Deputy reaffirms rate hike stance after Tankan • Japan jobless rate rises ahead of BOJ meeting • Dollar edges up amid second day of shutdown

• ADP report shows 32,000 job loss after benchmark revision • US ISM manufacturing PMI rises in September but remains in contraction • Fitch, S&P downplay US shutdown risks to rating and economy • Eurozone inflation ticks up, supporting ECB rate pause • Dollar mixed as shutdown begins, ADP jobs data disappoints

• US government shutdown imminent after senate blocks GOP bill • US JOLTs job openings exceed forecasts • US consumer confidence weakens in September on labor market worries • China’s official PMI slump extends to longest since 2019 • Thailand’s August factory output drops sharply • Dollar slips amid month- and quarter-end flows