Daily Market Insight

• Fed minutes and survey data reinforce expectations of at least one more rate hike • German industrial output rebounds at strongest pace since early 2025 • Japan’s real wages rise again in August • India raises interest rate for first time in 3 years • Dollar strengthened; global bond sell-off eased

• U.S. ADP hiring gains momentum reinforcing labor market resilience • U.S. trade deficit widens on AI-linked imports, weighing on Q3 GDP • Eurozone retail sales edge higher despite slump in fuel sales • France’s fiscal concerns are back as widening deficits and the higher borrowing costs • BoJ Uchida showed a mixed signal speech in more rate hikes • Thai September inflation accelerated again but below market forecast • Dollar slipped from recent highs as treasury yields eased ahead of the Fed minutes

• Saudi supply strain signals prolonged tightness in global oil inventories • U.S. services activity remained resilient, but rising input costs point to renewed inflation risks • Eurozone business activity reached a 3½-year high, demonstrating resilience despite rising inflation pressures • Japan’s service-sector growth softened in September, though domestic demand remained resilient • Thailand’s STI strategy aims to strengthen resilience and attract long-term investment

• G7 unveils a coordinated oil-stock release to ease energy market tightness • U.S. jobs growth stalled in September • Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8%, strengthening the case for a higher-for-longer ECB stance • EU current-account surplus remained positive in Q2 2026, but a narrowing surplus signals weaker external support for Eurozone growth • Thailand keeps its 2026 growth outlook intact despite recent flood disruptions

• U.S. initial jobless claims slip to their lowest level since July • Euro zone factory growth accelerates again in September • UK house prices fall sharply since last year amid higher mortgage rates • Japan's manufacturing sector expanded at its weakest pace in six months in September • Tokyo’s core inflation edges up again keep BOJ rate hike talk alive • Dollar firms as strong U.S. labor data

• U.S. economic growth surpasses expectations as robust consumer spending • U.S. PCE inflation cooler than expected in August • UK economy expanded slightly faster than previously estimated • China’s overall economic activities gained momentum in September • Thailand industrial sector gained momentum in August • Softer US PCE data weigh on dollar, prompting traders to trim Fed rate-hike bets

• U.S. labor market remains resilient despite softer labor demand in August • Eurozone economic confidence weakened in September • RBA hikes key rate to 4.6%, marking 15-year high, more rate hikes possible • Japan Coincident Index firmed at highest since 2018 • Thailand approves THB 1.26 trillion borrowing, despite tightening debt headroom • Dollar remains traded at a firm bias, 10Y treasury yield continued to climb

• Treasury selloff intensifies as Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns and reinforce the higher-for-longer rate outlook • U.S. oil reserves hit a 44-year low, reducing flexibility to cushion future supply shocks. • China’s industrial sector remains a bright spot, supported by strong AI- and semiconductor-led growth • JPMorgan sees further BoT normalization in 2027, signaling a stronger domestic recovery and a gradual narrowing of Thailand's accommodative policy stance. • Thailand’s auto sector remains resilient, but rising EV imports and flood-related spending risks could weigh on domestic demand and industrial activity

• US-China trade truce extension supports sentiment, although strategic tensions remain • US-Iran diplomacy eases supply disruption concerns, pushing oil prices lower and reducing near-term inflation risks. • US consumers grow more cautious as inflation expectations rise, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed concerns. • Rising trade deficits increase pressure on Thailand’s external balance despite strong export growth • Bangkok’s citywide flood emergency raises risks to economic activity, logistics, and supply chains

• US labor market remains resilient as decline in jobless claims • Fed officials signal further rate hikes amid decade-high bond yields • US preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban • BoE deputy signals higher likelihood of rate hike if energy prices stay elevated • Japan’s economic activities continued to expand in September • Dollar gains on US economic strength and hawkish Fed comments