- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.43-34.62 this morning supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.70
· SET Index: 1,529.2 (+0.94%), 22 May 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,192.6 (+0.02%), 22 May 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (-0.22 bps), 22 May 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.72 (+2.00 bps), 22 May 2023
- Fed's Kashkari open to a pause in rate increases in June; Citi still expects a 25bps hike
- South Korea consumer sentiment hits 1-year high, inflation expectations weaken
- Thai jobless rate lowest in 3 years in Q1 as tourism rebounds
- Dollar gains against yen as Fed policy, debt ceiling in focus
Fed's Kashkari open to a pause in rate increases in June; Citi still expects a 25bps hike
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told the Wall Street Journal that he is open to the central bank adopting a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting in June. “I’m open to the idea that we can move a little bit more slowly from here,” Kashakri told WSJ. His comments came after Fed Chair Powell also said that the central bank may opt not to raise rates in June. Earlier this month, the Fed hiked by 25 basis points to a range between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. Despite the latest comments by Kashkari and Powell, Citi economists still expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in June. “We read Chair Powell’s comments last Friday as consistent with this data dependent approach. Our projections for upcoming data, including core PCE inflation released Friday May 26, suggest the Fed will find itself revising up growth and inflation forecasts and raising rates again by 25bp in June,” Citi economists said in a note.
South Korea consumer sentiment hits 1-year high, inflation expectations weaken
Consumer sentiment in South Korea improved in May to the highest level in a year, with their inflation expectations weakening, a central bank survey showed on Tuesday. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 98.0 in May from 95.1 in April, according to the Bank of Korea’s monthly survey of consumers. The index remained below 100 – the average of last two decades – for the 12th consecutive month, but it hit the highest level in the streak. The median of consumers’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell to 3.5% from 3.7%, also marking its lowest level in 12 months. “It is too early to say inflation expectations are stabilizing, with uncertainties remaining over public price increases and other factors,” said a BOK official during a media briefing.
Thai jobless rate lowest in 3 years in Q1 as tourism rebounds
Thailand's unemployment rate hit a three-year low in the first quarter, the state planning agency said on Monday, declining to 1.05% from 1.15% in the last three months of 2022 as recovery in the crucial tourism industry strengthened. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, driven by the continued pickup in the travel sector, a key source of jobs that was decimated by the pandemic. Employment increased 2.4% in January-March from a year earlier, up from a 1.5% rise in the previous three months, the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said in a statement. The jobless rate in January-March, with 420,000 unemployed, was the lowest since the 1.03% recorded in the first quarter of 2020, before the economy felt the full impacts of the pandemic.
Dollar gains against yen as Fed policy, debt ceiling in focus
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, -0.22 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.51, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.72, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.46 Moving in a range of 34.43-34.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday, holding just below a six-month high, as investors waited on fresh data to signal whether the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue hiking interest rates, while watching for news of a congressional deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The greenback has gained for the past two weeks as stronger than expected economic reports and hawkish Fed officials keep the prospect of further interest rate increases alive. The dollar got a mild boost after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Monday that the Fed may still need to raise its benchmark interest rate by another half-point this year.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC