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Daily Market Insight: 30 January 2023

30 Jan 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.755-32.80 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.85

·         SET Index: 1,681.3 (+0.59%), 27 Jan 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,070.6 (+0.25%), 27 Jan 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.48 (+2.16 bps), 27 Jan 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.52 (+3.00 bps), 27 Jan 2023


  • U.S. consumer moods brighten to kick of 2023, inflation views down
  • Tokyo CPI inflation rises more than expected in January
  • Canada records C$3.55 billion budget deficit over first eight months of 2022/23
  • Dollar's comeback beginning to look 'appealing' as U.S. stocks enter rally mode


U.S. consumer moods brighten to kick of 2023, inflation views down U.S. consumers entered 2023 with the most optimism in nine months, buoyed by healthy incomes and easing inflation even as most worry a recession could trip up the economy this year. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers benchmark Consumer Sentiment Index rose nearly 9% to 64.9 in January - the highest since April 2022 - from a final reading of 59.7 in December. The reading was modestly better than the median expectation in a Reuters poll of economists for 64.6, which was also the January preliminary reading from two weeks earlier. The forward-looking expectations index rose to the highest in a year, but Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu warned the recent improvements could be jeopardized by the political standoff in Washington over U.S. government borrowing


Tokyo CPI inflation rises more than expected in January Inflation in Japan’s capital grew more than expected in January, data showed on Friday, heralding a similar rise in nationwide inflation and a higher chance of monetary tightening measures by the central bank. The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index rose at an annualized 4.3% in January from 4.0% in the prior month, hitting a 41-year high and also beating expectations for a reading of 4.2%, data from the Statistics Bureau showed. Including the prices of volatile materials such as fresh food, Tokyo CPI inflation grew 4.4% in January from 4% in the prior month, also hitting an over 41-year high. Tokyo CPI inflation has outpaced expectations for the past four consecutive months, as Japan struggles with rising import costs of fuel and food. The Tokyo reading usually acts as a bellwether for broader inflation in the country, which was also trending at a 41-year high by end-2022.


Canada records C$3.55 billion budget deficit over first eight months of 2022/23 Canada recorded a C$3.55 billion ($2.67 billion) budget deficit for the first eight months of the 2022/23 fiscal year, partly due to higher debt charges, the finance ministry said on Friday. By comparison, Canada posted a C$73.70 billion deficit in the period from April to November 2021. Year-to-date revenues were up 14.8% on a broad-based improvement in income streams. Program expenses were down 13.9%, largely reflecting lower transfers to individuals and businesses as COVID-19 support wound down, the finance ministry said in a statement. Public debt charges increased 35.8% this fiscal year, primarily reflecting higher interest rates and higher inflation adjustments on real return bonds, which have a coupon that is linked to the level of the consumer price index. On a monthly basis, Canada posted a deficit of C$3.38 billion in November, compared to the C$1.44 billion deficit recorded a year ago.


Dollar's comeback beginning to look 'appealing' as U.S. stocks enter rally mode The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.48, +2.16 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.47, +6.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.52, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.88 Moving in a range of 32.755-32.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. The dollar has faced hammer blow after hammer blow in its attempts to hold ground against rivals, but the greenback is finally starting to look 'appealing' as U.S. equities pick up steam against their European rivals. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.1% to 101.72. The MSCI's broad index of European shares, ex-UK, is up about 9% so far in January, versus 6% in the U.S. The recent rally in U.S. stocks versus their European peers gives credence to expectations that it may not be all one-way traffic higher for European stocks. Over the past week, there have been signs European equities have underperformed their U.S. peers, rising about 1% versus the S&P 500’s 2.4%.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC