- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.50-32.53 this morning supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.65
- SET Index: 1,157.6 (-0.3%), 16 July 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,263.7 (+0.3%), 16 July 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.531 (-0.17 bps), 16 July 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.46 (-4.0 bps), 16 July 2025
- Trump denies firing Powell after suggestion to GOP
- US PPI stagnated on decline in services costs
- US industrial production outpaces forecasts
- UK inflation rose more than expected in June
- The US dollar declined on fears over the Fed’s independence
Trump denies firing Powell after suggestion to GOP
Reports suggested President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, sparking fears over the Fed’s independence. Trump allegedly consulted GOP lawmakers, who didn’t object, and a meeting with Powell was planned but later cancelled. Nonetheless, Trump denied the reports, saying he wouldn’t fire Powell unless fraud was involved, though a leadership change could come in eight months, with NEC Director Hassett as a possible successor. Powell has faced criticism over high interest rates and Fed building renovation costs, which could be used as grounds for dismissal.
US PPI stagnated on decline in services costs
June’s PPI came in flat, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase and cooling from a revised 0.3% in May. Annually, headline PPI rose 2.3%, below the 2.5% forecast and easing from a revised 2.7%. Core PPI was also unchanged, underperforming the 0.2% estimate and easing to 2.6% year-over-year from 3.0%. Key PCE-related components were mixed: airline fares dropped further, while portfolio management rebounded. Healthcare saw modest gains, with outpatient care rising and inpatient care flat. Nonetheless, the delayed effect of tariffs on PPI is expected, as the index excludes imports and focuses on domestic pricing.
US industrial production outpaces forecasts
Industrial production rose 0.3% in June, beating expectations of 0.1% and up from a revised flat reading in May. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1%, slightly above forecasts, and capacity utilization unexpectedly increased to 77.6% from 77.5%, ahead of the 77.4% consensus. Despite the upside surprise, analysts are maintaining its baseline forecast, anticipating a slowdown in industrial activity in the second half of 2025 as the impact of tariffs sets in.
UK inflation rose more than expected in June
UK inflation rose to 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2024, up from 3.4% and above expectations for no change. Food prices jumped 4.4%, with retailers citing higher payroll taxes and minimum wage hikes. Services inflation stayed at 4.7%, also above forecasts, driven by rising hotel, clothing, and footwear costs. The surprise increase sparked criticism of the Labour government’s tax policies.
The US dollar declined on fears over the Fed’s independence
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.531, -0.17 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.524, -0.31 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.46, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.51, moving in a range of 32.50 – 32.53 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.65 today. The dollar fell on concerns over Fed independence after reports claimed Trump considered firing Fed Chair Powell and had shown a draft dismissal letter to House Republicans. The index later rebounded after Trump denied the reports and denied drafting any letter, while softer-than-expected PPI data also drew attention. The euro gained on early USD weakness, briefly reclaiming 1.1700 before trimming gains after Trump’s denial. The Japanese yen recovered recent losses, with USD/JPY dipping toward 147.00 amid Powell firing fears, before rebounding as Trump refuted the claims.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
