- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.755 – 33.77 this morning, supportive level at 33.65 resistance level at 33.85
- SET Index: 1,562.67 (+0.42%), 22 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,623.68 (-0.52%), 23 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.301 (-2.09bps), 22 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.000 (+4.00bps), 23 Oct 2026
- Trump prepares for potential Iran escalation after US and Israeli elections
- Trump targets mortgage insurance and refinancing costs to ease housing burden
- US consumer confidence weakens even as business activity remains strong
- French unrest introduces a new fiscal and confidence shock for Europe
- Euro area growth loses momentum as France contracts
Trump prepares for potential Iran escalation after US and Israeli elections
The Trump administration is preparing for possible escalation with Iran as geopolitical tensions intensify following the US and Israeli elections. Iran-related threats have already prompted the US to adjust embassy staffing across the Middle East, while concerns over Houthi attacks remain elevated.
Trump targets mortgage insurance and refinancing costs to ease housing burden
President Trump’s executive order seeks to lower mortgage insurance and refinancing costs, aiming to improve housing affordability for U.S. borrowers. The move comes as mortgage rates remain elevated, with the 30-year rate recently around 7.3%, keeping financing costs high. Lower transaction costs could provide some relief, though broader affordability will remain constrained by high interest rates.
US consumer confidence weakens even as business activity remains strong
US consumer sentiment slipped to a five-month low as inflation concerns weighed on household confidence. In contrast, business momentum remained robust, with the Composite PMI at 57.6 and Manufacturing PMI reaching a 53-month high of 56.0 in October. However, selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2022, suggesting persistent inflation could increasingly challenge otherwise resilient US growth.
French unrest introduces a new fiscal and confidence shock for Europe
Political turmoil and riots in France have increased scrutiny of French sovereign bonds, fiscal credibility and the euro. Although Moody’s reportedly maintained France’s rating, prolonged disruption could weaken retail activity, tourism and investment while raising risk premiums across fiscally vulnerable European markets.
Euro area growth loses momentum as France contracts
Euro-area growth slowed in October, with the Composite PMI falling to a 4-month low of 51.9, while weaker activity in both manufacturing and services was compounded by France slipping back into contraction. New-order growth softened and hiring nearly stalled, while higher energy costs pushed manufacturing input inflation sharply higher. Softer activity could strengthen the case for a more accommodative ECB policy stance if economic weakness.
Dollar retains a firm bias as geopolitical risks and European weakness support safe-haven demand
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.301 (-2.09bps). The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.240, -2.67 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.000 (+4bps). USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.65, moving in the range 33.755 – 33.77 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.65-33.85 today. The dollar should remain supported by rising US-Iran tensions, elevated oil prices and political uncertainty in France, reinforcing safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, weaker euro-area activity adds downside pressure on the euro. The USD outlook will then hinge on the Fed decision and upcoming US growth and inflation data, with resilient data supporting further gains, while softer readings and lower Treasury yields could trigger a correction.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
