- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.59 – 33.605 this morning, supportive level at 33.45 resistance level at 33.65
- SET Index: 1,556.1 (+0.07%), 21 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,757.2 (+0.58%), 21 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.32 (-0.17 bps), 21 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.13 (+1.00 bps), 21 Oct 2026
- UK producer price pressures intensified in September
- UK inflation surprises to the upside, reinforcing expectations that the BoE may resume tightening in November
- Japan’s export growth stays robust, supported by chips and cars
- China defended its rare-earth export controls on Japan
- Indonesia's central bank keeps key rate unchanged, delivering policy mixed
- Dollar held near 3-week low ahead of next week’s Fed meeting
UK producer price pressures intensified in September
The UK Input Price Inflation accelerated to 8.3% y/y from 6.7% y/y in August and above market expectation of 7.2% y/y, while factory-gate inflation rose to 4.6% from 3.8%, its highest since April 2023. On a monthly basis, input and output prices increased by 1.5% and 0.8%, respectively. The acceleration was largely driven by oil-related products, with crude oil input prices surging 51.0% y/y and coke and refined petroleum output prices rising 63.3% y/y, amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Additionally, Services Producer Price Inflation (SPPI) also accelerated to 4.5% y/y in Q3 2026, the highest since Q2 2023, from a revised 4.2% in Q2. However, quarterly price growth moderated to 0.9% q/q, from 1.9% previously. Transportation and storage services were the main driver of annual inflation, with prices rising 10.7% y/y.
UK inflation surprises to the upside, reinforcing expectations that the BoE may resume tightening in November
The UK headline CPI rising 3.5% y/y, above expectations of 3.4% and August’s 3.1%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.6%. The hotter-than-expected inflation print, alongside stronger UK labor market data, is likely to reinforce expectations of a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November. While BoE MPC member Megan Greene also highlighted persistent upside risks, warning that second-round inflation effects could begin to emerge.
Japan’s export growth stays robust, supported by chips and cars
Japan’s export growth remained robust in September, rising 16.7% y/y, though below expectations of 21.3%, marking the 13th consecutive month of expansion. Growth was supported by strong AI-related demand, with semiconductor exports surging 49.4% y/y and chip-making equipment up 43.9%, while auto exports rose 15.1% y/y. Exports to the U.S. increased 22.9% y/y, while shipments to China and the EU rose 8.6% y/y and 10.5% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, imports climbed 18.9% y/y, driven partly by elevated oil prices, leaving a ¥536 billion trade deficit.
China defended its rare-earth export controls on Japan
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning addressed concerns over Japan's critical rare earth supplies during a regular press conference on October 21, citing concerns over Tokyo’s “remilitarization and nuclear ambitions,” as Japan faces tightening supplies of critical minerals. Japan’s yttrium inventories could reportedly be depleted within months, prompting Tokyo to seek U.S. assistance in urging Beijing to ease the restrictions. China, the world’s main exporter of yttrium, has progressively tightened controls on shipments to Japan, raising supply risks for industries reliant on the mineral, including aerospace and advanced manufacturing.
Indonesia's central bank keeps key rate unchanged, delivering policy mixed
Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% on October’s meeting as market expected, while hiking the overnight deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 5.00%. BI also announced a 1-ppt reduction in banks’ reserve requirements from November, followed by another 1-ppt cut in December, potentially freeing up liquidity for lending to prioritize rupiah stability while using targeted liquidity measures to support economic growth and achieve an inflation target of 1.5 to 3.5%. The decision comes amid heightened market volatility following MSCI’s downgrade warning. BI described the global outlook as subdued amid elevated oil prices and persistent inflation, while Indonesia’s domestic economy remained solid, supported by consumption and government stimulus.
Dollar held near 3-week low ahead of next week’s Fed meeting
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.32, -0.17 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.26, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.13, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.63 Moving in a range of 33.59-33.605 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.45-33.65 today. The U.S. dollar held near 3-week low amid limited market catalysts ahead of next week’s Fed decision on October 27-28, while oil prices rose modestly as markets weighed geopolitical developments involving Russia and Ukraine.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
