- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.62 – 33.635 this morning, supportive level at 33.45 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,554.9 (-1.07%), 20 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,712.6 (+0.28%), 20 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.32 (+1.54 bps), 20 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.12 (-3.00 bps), 20 Oct 2026
- U.S. private-sector hiring cooled in early October
- German producer prices hit highest in years, fueling inflation worries
- French bond yields near 24-year high as new protests loom
- China leaves loan rates unchanged as PBOC weighs reforms
- BI under pressure to tighten further as MSCI downgrade risks
- Dollar slipped as lower oil prices eased inflation and rate-hike concerns
U.S. private-sector hiring cooled in early October
The U.S. ADP employment data showed that average weekly job gains fall to 18,500 over the four weeks ending October 3 from 26,000 a week earlier. This marked a reversal from the improvement seen through much of September, when the four-week moving average increased from 20,000 on September 5 to 26,000 on September 26. This pointed to weaker hiring momentum entering October, although the estimates remain preliminary and may be revised as additional employment data are incorporated.
German producer prices hit highest in years, fueling inflation worries
German producer price index (PPI) accelerated sharply in September, rising 1.9% m/m and 6.7% y/y, well above expectations of 1.5% and 6.2%, respectively. The annual increase was the strongest since March 2023, largely driven by a 5.8% monthly surge in energy prices. Excluding energy, PPI rose just 0.1% m/m and 3.2% y/y, while price gains across intermediate, capital and consumer goods remained modest. The key risk is a broader pass-through of higher energy costs into consumer prices, which could intensify inflationary pressures.
French bond yields near 24-year high as new protests loom
French government bond yields extended their rise on Tuesday as renewed political unrest heightened concerns over the government’s ability to rein in its large fiscal deficit. The 10-year OAT yield rose 3 bps to 4.96%, while the OAT-Bund spread widened 5.5 bps to 152.5 bps, remaining close to levels seen last in 2011. Investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of further protests and a key budget vote, as persistent public resistance could complicate fiscal consolidation. Meanwhile, German Bund yields edged lower, although ongoing energy-price pressures continued to support expectations for further ECB rate hikes.
China leaves loan rates unchanged as PBOC weighs reforms
China's one-year loan prime rate remained at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, steady for 17th consecutive month. China’s central bank signaled its overnight reverse repurchase rate will replace the current seven-day rate as the new policy benchmark, in another step that aligns it closer with global peers and has the potential to push down borrowing costs. Under the proposed framework, the overnight reverse repo rate would become the central bank’s primary policy lever, strengthening the role of short-term rates in guiding monetary conditions.
BI under pressure to tighten further as MSCI downgrade risks
Bank Indonesia (BI) faces growing pressure to raise rates on today’s meeting (21 October) after maintaining its policy rate at 5.75% since June 2026 as mainly due to the MSCI downgrade threat triggered a sharp selloff in Indonesian equities and pushed the rupiah near record lows. MSCI is considering downgrading Indonesia from emerging-market to standalone status, intensifying capital-outflow concerns. Meanwhile, the rupiah weakened to 18,030/USD, down around 8% this year. Despite inflation remaining within the 1.5%-3.5% target, economists argue that further tightening may be needed to restore investor confidence and stabilize the currency.
Dollar slipped as lower oil prices eased inflation and rate-hike concerns
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.32, +1.54 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.28, -0.53 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.12, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.64 Moving in a range of 33.62-33.635 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.45-33.70 today. The U.S. dollar slipped and turned sideways as oil prices reversed earlier gains, easing inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Brent crude fell 0.8% amid reports of a potential U.S.-Iran compromise, while diverging central-bank responses to energy prices continued to drive currency movements. While gold edged lower as investors ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
