- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.635 – 33.645 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,584.6 (+0.15%), 7 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,801.8 (-0.22%), 7 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.408 (+0.09 bps), 7 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.28 (+1.00 bps), 7 Oct 2026
- Fed minutes and survey data reinforce expectations of at least one more rate hike
- German industrial output rebounds at strongest pace since early 2025
- Japan’s real wages rise again in August
- India raises interest rate for first time in 3 years
- Dollar strengthened; global bond sell-off eased
Fed minutes and survey data reinforce expectations of at least one more rate hike
September FOMC minutes show most officials projecting one additional hike in 2026 and debating how restrictive policy really is, while some seek contingency plans for Treasury market stress. New York Fed survey results point to 1‑year inflation expectations at 3.9% and stronger expected spending, supporting the case for tighter policy. Together with already elevated PCE inflation, this has pushed US Treasury yields to levels last seen in 2002. Higher US yields and expectations of a higher terminal rate could pressure US equities and duration while supporting the US dollar.
German industrial output rebounds at strongest pace since early 2025
The country's Federal Statistical Office, Destatis reported that Germany's industrial production rebounded strongly in August, rising 2.0%MoM and 2.3%YoY, supported primarily by a sharp recovery in construction activity. Construction output surged 9.3% from the previous month, while capital goods and consumer goods production increased by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively. Excluding energy and construction, industrial production still posted a modest 0.6% gain, suggesting a gradual improvement in underlying manufacturing activity despite continued weakness in intermediate goods output.
Japan’s real wages rise again in August
Japan’s real wages rose 1.5%YoY in August, marking an eighth consecutive month of gains and the longest stretch of increases in nearly a decade. The improvement was driven by solid nominal wage growth, with both nominal earnings and base salaries rising 3.8%, while government measures to curb inflation, including utility subsidies, helped keep consumer inflation at 1.9%. The combination of stronger wage growth and moderating price pressures is supporting household purchasing power and should help sustain private consumption.
India raises interest rate for first time in 3 years
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its policy rate by 25 bps. to 5.50% in a unanimous decision, while shifting its policy stance from "neutral" to "calibrated tightening" in a 4-2 vote. Although the RBI expects economic activity to remain resilient, Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighted growing inflation concerns, with consumer inflation rising to 4.8% in August, above the central bank's 4% target and expected to accelerate further. The move reflects increasing concerns over rising energy and food prices, as well as a broader global inflation backdrop that is prompting major central banks to maintain a tightening bias.
Dollar strengthened; global bond sell-off eased
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.408, +0.09 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.357, +0.17 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.28, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.69 Moving in a range of 33.635-33.645 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50-33.70 today. The U.S. dollar strengthened as rebounding oil prices revived concerns over inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Global government bonds came under renewed pressure, driving the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield to a fresh 24-year high as investors priced in heavy sovereign debt issuance, persistent inflation risks, and the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes last night. However, yields later retreated from their highs after oil prices declined, following the International Energy Agency’s agreement to accelerate the release of oil inventories and prioritize diesel supplies to ease record-high fuel costs.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
