- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.55 – 33.57 this morning, supportive level at 33.45 resistance level at 33.65
- SET Index: 1,571.62 (+0.49%), 2 Oct 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,722.72 (+0.73%), 2 Oct 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.391 (+0.16bps), 2 Oct 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.280 (+4.00bps), 2 Oct 2026
- G7 unveils a coordinated oil-stock release to ease energy market tightness
- U.S. jobs growth stalled in September
- Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8%, strengthening the case for a higher-for-longer ECB stance
- EU current-account surplus remained positive in Q2 2026, but a narrowing surplus signals weaker external support for Eurozone growth
- Thailand keeps its 2026 growth outlook intact despite recent flood disruptions
- Dollar has a modestly firm but two-sided near-term bias
G7 unveils a coordinated oil-stock release to ease energy market tightness, aiming to contain fuel prices and reduce supply risks ahead of winter.
The G7 agreed to release an additional 100 million barrels of oil reserves within the next four months and accelerate a substantial diesel-stock release over the next 20 days. The group also committed to avoid energy export restrictions among member countries, helping preserve cross-border fuel flows and prevent further market disruptions. The move comes as oil and diesel markets remain tight amid Middle East tensions, with Europe facing low diesel inventories and concerns over winter energy supply.
U.S. jobs growth stalled in September, reducing the likelihood of an October Fed rate hike.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k in September, well below the 89k consensus forecast, while unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Wage growth slowed further to 3.0% YoY, the weakest pace since 2021, reinforcing signs of cooling labor market conditions. Following the report, markets raised the probability of the Fed holding rates in October to around 83%, supporting lower Treasury yields and easing near-term dollar strength despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target.
Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8%, strengthening the case for a higher-for-longer ECB stance
Annual inflation in the eurozone rose to 3.8% YoY in September, up from 3.2% in August, driven mainly by a sharp increase in energy inflation to 18.8% from 14.3%. Meanwhile, core inflation edged up to 2.5%, remaining above the ECB's 2% target. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading reinforces expectations that the ECB will maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer, providing near-term support to the euro.
EU current-account surplus remained positive in Q2 2026, but a narrowing surplus signals weaker external support for Eurozone growth.
the EU recorded a current-account surplus of €80.2 billion (1.6% of GDP) in Q2 2026, down from €98.0 billion (2.0% of GDP) in Q1. The decline was mainly driven by smaller surpluses in goods, services, and primary income. For the Euro Area, the current-account surplus fell from €74.1 billion to €57.0 billion, suggesting that while Europe continues to generate net external income, foreign-demand support for growth has weakened compared with earlier in the year.
Thailand keeps its 2026 growth outlook intact despite recent flood disruptions.
Thailand’s Finance Ministry estimates that recent floods will reduce 2026 GDP growth by less than 0.1 percentage points. Despite disruptions in several provinces, the government continues to project 2.0-2.5% GDP growth this year, indicating limited macroeconomic impact from the flooding
Dollar has a modestly firm but two-sided near-term bias
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.391 (+0.16bps). The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.340, +0.13 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.280 (+4.00bps). USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.60, moving in the range 33.55 – 33.57 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.45-33.65 today. The weak September payrolls report (29k vs. 90k expected) reduces the likelihood of an October Fed hike and should weigh on the dollar at the start of the week. However, elevated oil prices and lingering inflation risks are likely to limit any significant USD downside.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
