- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.62 – 33.64 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,559.0 (-2.24%), 30 Sep 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,651.5 (-0.25%), 30 Sep 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.371 (-4.57 bps), 30 Sep 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.29 (+3.00 bps), 30 Sep 2026
- U.S. economic growth surpasses expectations as robust consumer spending
- U.S. PCE inflation cooler than expected in August
- UK economy expanded slightly faster than previously estimated
- China’s overall economic activities gained momentum in September
- Thailand industrial sector gained momentum in August
- Softer US PCE data weigh on dollar, prompting traders to trim Fed rate-hike bets
U.S. economic growth surpasses expectations as robust consumer spending
The U.S. real GDP growth expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q2/2026 in the latest GDP estimate, exceeding economists' forecast for growth of 1.5%., following an upwardly revised 2.5% growth in Q1/2026. The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were consumption expenditure, investment, and exports. Particularly, consumer spending grew at 3.8%, revised up from the previously reported 3.4% pace. Spending grew at a 0.7% rate in the previous quarter. By contrast, private investment's contribution declined from 1.25 pp in the first quarter to 0.82 pp recently.
U.S. PCE inflation cooler than expected in August
The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2%MoM in August, below the 0.3% forecast. Headline PCE inflation increased 0.3%MoM. On an annual basis, core and headline inflation held steady at 3.0%YoY and 3.4%YoY, respectively, both well below market expectations.
UK economy expanded slightly faster than previously estimated
The UK real GDP growth revised up to 0.5%QoQ in Q2/2026, following a 0.6% increase in Q1. GDP was 2.0% higher than in Q4/2024. The upward revision indicates the economy remained resilient despite a softer global backdrop. Stronger services growth in the latest quarter means the economy is now slightly larger than previously estimated. The official data suggested households still had substantial financial buffers at the end of the second quarter, with real household income per capita rising 1% and the saving ratio increasing to 8.8%. The UK's external borrowing position also narrowed slightly.
China’s overall economic activities gained momentum in September
China's Manufacturing PMI (Rating Dog) rising to 52.1 in September 2026, its highest level in five months. Stronger domestic and overseas demand lifted both output and new orders, while export orders recorded their strongest growth since February. Rising metal and oil prices pushed input costs higher, leading manufacturers to resume modest price increases. On the other hand, services PMI also accelerated for second straight to 51.6, driven by greater inflows of new business. Total new orders expanded at a solid rate that was the quickest since June, supported by successful business development efforts among firms and a broad improvement in demand conditions.
Thailand industrial sector gained momentum in August
The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) reported that the revised Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) rose 4.4%YoY in August 2026, while capacity utilization improved to 58.3%. Industrial activity was supported by strong global demand for electronics driven by AI and data center investment, government stimulus measures, lower diesel prices, and a weaker baht. Key growth industries included communication equipment, electronic components and PCBA, and petroleum refining. Meanwhile, risks remain from Middle East tensions, higher logistics and energy costs, and competition from low-cost imports.
Softer US PCE data weigh on dollar, prompting traders to trim Fed rate-hike bets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.371, -4.57 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.318, -4.42 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.29, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.53 Moving in a range of 33.62-33.64 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50-33.70 today. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation and resilient economic activity have pushed the U.S. dollar, the 10-year U.S. treasury yield has remained higher, while rate expectations for October’s meeting have dropped to 37% from 70% earlier this week to hike another 25 bps., according to CME FedWatch Tool. Markets are now awaiting Friday's NFP report for further signals on labor market strength.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
