- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.595 – 33.63 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,602.37 (-0.33%), 28 Sep 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,683.69 (-0.77%), 28 Sep 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.407 (+6.23 bps), 28 Sep 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.24 (+6 bps), 28 Sep 2026
- Treasury selloff intensifies as Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns and reinforce the higher-for-longer rate outlook
- U.S. oil reserves hit a 44-year low, reducing flexibility to cushion future supply shocks.
- China’s industrial sector remains a bright spot, supported by strong AI- and semiconductor-led growth
- JPMorgan sees further BoT normalization in 2027, signaling a stronger domestic recovery and a gradual narrowing of Thailand's accommodative policy stance.
- Thailand’s
auto sector remains resilient, but rising EV imports and flood-related
spending risks could weigh on domestic demand and industrial activity
Treasury selloff intensifies as Middle East tensions fuel inflation concerns and reinforce the higher-for-longer rate outlook
The U.S. administration is weighing a 90‑day diesel export ban or restrictions to tackle record domestic prices, raising concern that limiting exports from the world’s largest diesel supplier could push already elevated global and European diesel prices even higher and lift U.S. gasoline costs via refinery adjustments amid war‑related supply disruptions.
U.S. oil reserves hit a 44-year low, reducing flexibility to cushion future supply shocks.
U.S. Treasury yields climbed to fresh multi-decade highs after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that elevated energy prices could persist for longer. The renewed inflation risk has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep tightening policy, pushing borrowing costs higher across the economy and adding pressure to financial conditions.
China’s industrial sector remains a bright spot, supported by strong AI- and semiconductor-led growth
China’s industrial profits rose 15.7% YoY to CNY 5.27 trillion in Jan-Aug 2026, driven by continued strength in high-tech manufacturing. Electronics profits surged 110% YoY, while high-tech manufacturing profits increased 54.7% YoY, underscoring robust demand from AI, semiconductors, EVs, and digital infrastructure. The data point to improving industrial momentum and provide support for China's growth outlook.
JPMorgan sees further BoT normalization in 2027, signaling a stronger domestic recovery and a gradual narrowing of Thailand's accommodative policy stance.
JPMorgan expects the Bank of Thailand to raise its policy rate three times in 2027, bringing the benchmark rate to 1.75%. The view reflects expectations of firmer domestic demand, improving growth momentum, and gradually rising inflation pressures. A higher policy rate could support the Thai baht and help narrow interest rate differentials with major economies, although monetary conditions would remain accommodative by historical standards.
Thailand’s auto sector remains resilient, but rising EV imports and flood-related spending risks could weigh on domestic demand and industrial activity
While the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) maintained its 2026 vehicle production target of 1.45 million units, citing limited disruption to production from recent flooding, the report highlights growing structural challenges for Thailand’s manufacturing sector. Imported EVs accounted for 58.3% of BEV sales in the first eight months of 2026, exceeding domestically produced EVs (41.7%), implying weaker domestic value-added and supply-chain benefits. In addition, estimated flood damages of around THB 30 billion could divert household spending toward repairs and reconstruction, potentially dampening vehicle purchases and private consumption in the near term.
Dollar remains firm on as higher U.S. yields, elevated energy risks.
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.407, +6.23 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.355, +6.39 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.24, +6 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.58, moving in a range of 33.595 – 33.63 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.70 today. The dollar remains firm as higher U.S. yields, elevated energy risks, and a resilient U.S. economy reinforce the higher-for-longer Fed narrative, outweighing improving growth signals from China and expectations of gradual Bank of Thailand normalization.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
