- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.42 – 33.49 this morning, supportive level at 33.35 resistance level at 33.55
- SET Index: 1,607.63 (+0.31%), 25 Sep 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,743.41 (+0.51%), 25 Sep 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.345 (+0.15 bps), 25 Sep 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 5.17 (-1.00 bps), 25 Sep 2026
- US-China trade truce extension supports sentiment, although strategic tensions remain
- US-Iran diplomacy eases supply disruption concerns, pushing oil prices lower and reducing near-term inflation risks.
- US consumers grow more cautious as inflation expectations rise, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed concerns.
- Rising trade deficits increase pressure on Thailand’s external balance despite strong export growth
- Bangkok’s citywide flood emergency raises risks to economic activity, logistics, and supply chains
US-China trade truce extension supports sentiment, although strategic tensions remain
The Trump-Xi Summit delivered limited trade concessions and an extension of the current trade truce, reducing downside risks to global trade. However, progress on broader strategic issues remains limited, leaving longer-term geopolitical and economic uncertainties intact.
US-Iran diplomacy eases supply disruption concerns, pushing oil prices lower and reducing near-term inflation risks.
Iran signaled its willingness to continue indirect talks with the United States and pursue the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing concerns over a prolonged disruption to global oil supplies. As geopolitical tensions eased, investors scaled back the risk premium embedded in crude prices, pushing WTI down nearly 8% over the week to around US$92/bbl and Brent to around US$104/bbl. While negotiations remain ongoing, the market has shifted from pricing in a severe supply shock to expecting more stable oil flows and a softer inflation outlook
US consumers grow more cautious as inflation expectations rise, reinforcing higher-for-longer Fed concerns.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 48.1 in September from 51.7 in August, the lowest level in four months, as concerns over high prices, fuel costs, interest rates, and trade tensions weighed on households. More importantly, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 4.0%, suggesting inflation concerns remain elevated and supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.
Rising trade deficits increase pressure on Thailand’s external balance despite strong export growth
Thailand’s exports rose 18.9% YoY in the first eight months of 2026, supported by strong demand for electronics and AI-related products. However, imports increased much faster at 36.1% YoY, resulting in a cumulative trade deficit of US$37.8 billion. While export growth remains a key driver of economic activity, the persistent trade deficit points to rising external vulnerabilities and could weigh on Thailand’s external balance and baht stability if the gap persists.
Bangkok’s citywide flood emergency raises risks to economic activity, logistics, and supply chains
Severe flooding in Bangkok poses a short-term downside risk to Thailand’s economic growth through supply-chain disruptions, weaker business activity, and potential delays in investment and logistics operations.
Dollar remains firm on strong US growth and higher-for-longer rates.
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.345, +0.15 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.292, +0.20 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 5.17, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.37, moving in a range of 33.42 – 33.49 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.35 – 33.55 today. Stronger US economic momentum, persistent inflation risks, and Thailand’s widening trade deficit are likely to keep the US dollar firm and maintain depreciation pressure on the baht, despite improving geopolitical sentiment.
