- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.48-32.56 this morning supportive level at 32.40 resistance level at 32.75
- SET Index: 1,164.0 (+0.3%), 29 May 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,912.2 (+0.4%), 29 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.831 (+0.44 bps), 29 May 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (-4.0 bps), 29 May 2025
- US Q1 GDP shrinks 0.2% on weaker spending, larger trade impact
- US appeals court reinstates Trump tariffs
- Rise in recurring jobless claims signals higher US unemployment
- Tokyo prices rising most in two years keeps BOJ on hike path
- The dollar weakened following soft economic data and rising trade uncertainty
US Q1 GDP shrinks 0.2% on weaker spending, larger trade impact
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ second estimate showed the US economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, slightly better than the initial 0.3% decline. The upward revision was mainly due to stronger business investment and higher inventory buildup. However, consumer spending rose just 1.2%—the slowest in nearly two years—and net exports dragged GDP down by almost 5 percentage points, the largest negative contribution on record.
US appeals court reinstates Trump tariffs
Donald Trump’s global tariffs will remain in place for now after an appeals court temporarily halted a ruling that would have blocked them, as it considers a longer-term decision. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the administration “fully expected” this outcome.
Rise in recurring jobless claims signals higher US unemployment
For the week ending May 24th, Initial Jobless Claims increased to 240,000 from 226,000, exceeding the forecast of 230,000. Meanwhile, Continued Claims for the week ending May 17th—aligned with the Nonfarm Payroll survey period—rose to 1.919 million from 1.893 million, also surpassing expectations of 1.894 million. The continued upward trend suggests that unemployed individuals may be facing challenges in securing new jobs.
Tokyo prices rising most in two years keeps BOJ on hike path
Tokyo prices rose at the fastest pace in two years in May, driven by higher food costs, supporting expectations for another Bank of Japan rate hike. Core CPI (excluding fresh food) climbed 3.6% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in April and above the 3.5% forecast—marking the highest increase since January 2023. Meanwhile, headline inflation held steady at 3.4%. It should be noted that some of the rise was influenced by policy effects, such as the diminishing impact of previous school fee cuts.
The dollar weakened following soft economic data and rising trade uncertainty
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.831, +0.44 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.826, +0.68 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.81, moving in a range of 32.48– 32.56 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.40 – 32.75 today. The dollar weakened following a series of soft economic data releases. These included a contraction in GDP, a dip in core PCE, a decline in pending home sales, and an increase in jobless claims—all pointing to signs of slowing economic momentum. Adding to the pressure on the dollar was heightened trade uncertainty, after the Court of International Trade struck down the Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. Although the administration appealed the decision, the appeals court later temporarily reinstated the tariffs, fueling further market volatility. The euro strengthened, benefiting from dollar weakness driven by soft US data. The euro reclaimed the 1.1300 level, breaking above its 21-day moving average (21DMA) in the process. The move reflected renewed bullish momentum for the euro amid dollar selling pressure. The Japanese yen strengthened, with USD/JPY dipping toward 144.00 as softer US data pushed yields lower and stocks reversed earlier gains.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
