- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.54-33.56 this morning supportive level at 33.40 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,197.3 (+2.2%), 30 Apr 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,604.1 (+0.6%), 1 May 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.889 (-0.92 bps), 30 Apr 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.25 (+8.0 bps), 1 May 2025
- US economy sees first contraction since 2022 due to spike in imports
- ISM manufacturing PMI rebounds slightly, still contracting
- US PCE Inflation overall eases in March
- Euro-Zone growth unexpectedly quickens but trade hit still ahead
- BoJ held rates at 0.50% with a dovish tone despite signaling future hikes
- Bank of Thailand lowers rate amid tariff woes
- US dollar index climbs above 100.00 ahead of NFP
US economy sees first contraction since 2022 due to spike in imports
US Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3%, slightly worse than the -0.2% consensus but better than the Atlanta Fed’s -1.5% forecast. The decline was driven by a surge in imports and lower government spending, partly offset by gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.
ISM manufacturing PMI rebounds slightly, still contracting
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0, above the 48.0 forecast. Employment and new orders improved slightly but stayed in contraction. Prices paid rose to 69.8, missing expectations. Production, exports, and imports weakened, while inventories fell and supply delays grew.
US PCE Inflation overall eases in March
The U.S. PCE inflation data for March was mixed. The headline monthly change was 0.0%, as expected, with a Y/Y increase of 2.3%, slightly above the 2.2% consensus. Core PCE also showed a 0.0% monthly change, with Y/Y rising 2.6%. Personal consumption and income both exceeded expectations, rising 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.
Euro-Zone growth unexpectedly quickens but trade hit still ahead
The euro-area economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter, surpassing the anticipated 0.2% and extending its growth streak to five quarters, with Germany and France—the region’s largest economies—both rebounding.
BoJ held rates at 0.50% with a dovish tone despite signaling future hikes
The Bank of Japan kept its rate at 0.5% as expected, pledging to raise it if economic and inflation conditions align with forecasts. It warned of high uncertainty and downgraded its economic outlook, citing risks from prolonged global policy uncertainty.
Bank of Thailand lowers rate amid tariff woes
The Bank of Thailand cut its benchmark interest rate to 1.75%, a two-year low, and signaled readiness for further easing due to the global trade war. It downgraded its GDP growth forecast to around 2%, potentially dropping to 1.3% depending on U.S. tariffs.
US dollar index climbs above 100.00 ahead of NFP
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.889, -0.92 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.887, -0.94 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.25, +8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.40, moving in a range of 33.54 – 33.56 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.40 – 33.70 today. The dollar gained for two consecutive days, supported by broad strength against G10 currencies as the month-end approached and rising US optimism following strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta. Despite mostly softer US economic data, the dollar strengthened, likely driven by buying activity to meet rebalancing requirements. The euro weakened due to muted trading from the Labor Day holiday, while the yen fell after the BOJ kept rates at 0.5% and delayed its inflation target timeline.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
