- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.925-36.99 this morning supportive level at 36.80 resistance level at 37.10
· SET Index: 1,332.1 (-2.15%), 19 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,967.2 (-0.88%), 19 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.72 (+1.29 bps), 19 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.62 (-2.00 bps), 19 Apr 2024
- Fed survey cites inflation, US election as key financial stability risks
- Japan's March core inflation slows, weak yen complicates BOJ move
- China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, in line with expectations
- Dollar hands back gains after Israeli strike; weekly gains likely
Fed survey cites inflation, US election as key financial stability risks Persistent inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates were cited as key risks to financial stability in the Federal Reserve's latest survey of US central bank contacts, with geopolitical troubles and the 2024 US presidential election also mentioned as "a potentially significant source of shocks.“ "Contacts noted several areas of uncertainty including trade policy and other foreign policy issues related to escalating geopolitical tensions," the Fed said on Friday in its semi-annual survey of 25 market participants, academics and other contacts. "They also noted policy uncertainty associated with the US elections in November," when the Democratic incumbent Joe Biden faces Republican former President Donald Trump. The survey results were included as part of the Fed's latest Financial Stability Report, which looks at issues like leverage and risk-taking throughout the economy to try to identify potential trouble spots.
Japan's March core inflation slows, weak yen complicates BOJ move Japan's core inflation slowed in March and an index gauging broader price trends fell below 3% for the first time in over a year as analysts say yen weakness could complicate the central bank's policy deliberations. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food items but includes energy items, rose 2.6% in March from a year earlier, matching median market forecasts. It decelerated from a 2.8% rise in February due to a slowdown in food price increases but stayed comfortably above the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, a gauge of price gains that excludes fresh food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) moderated to 2.9% after increasing 3.2% in February. It was the first time since November 2022 that the index fell below 3%.
China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged, in line with expectations China left benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing, in line with market expectations. The steady monthly LPR fixings come after China reported encouraging first-quarter economic data, which removes the urgency for Beijing to release monetary stimulus to aid the economic recovery. Meanwhile, a weakening yuan, uncertainty around timing of the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut and falling net interest margins (NIMs) at commercial lenders continue to constrain the easing efforts. With the first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth exceeding the annual target of "about 5%," market analysts and traders expect the policy stance to remain unchanged at the upcoming Politburo meeting. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR was unchanged at 3.95%.
Dollar hands back gains after Israeli strike; weekly gains likely The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.72, +1.29 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.70, +1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.62, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.87. Moving in a range of 36.925-36.99 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.80-37.10 today. The US dollar handed back early gains Wednesday in volatile action, as traders digested the reported Israeli strikes against Iranian sites and the impact on risk appetite. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 105.870, having earlier climbed as high as 106.190, just marginally below the five-month peak of 106.51 seen earlier in the week. The safe-haven dollar jumped higher earlier Friday following reports that Israel attacked Iran in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East, just a few days after Iran launched a drone strike on Israel. This move marks a potential escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict, and could herald worsening geopolitical conditions in the Middle East.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
