- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.86-36.895 this morning supportive level at 36.80 resistance level at 37.00
· SET Index: 1,361.0 (-0.43%), 18 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,011.1 (-0.22%), 18 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.71 (-6.14 bps), 18 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.64 (+5.00 bps), 18 Apr 2024
- US labor market stays resilient; housing regresses on higher mortgage rates
- Japan's March core inflation slows, weak yen complicates BOJ move
- BOJ's Ueda signals possible rate hike if weak yen boosts inflation
- US dollar gains after strong data, Fed comments on rate cuts
US labor market stays resilient; housing regresses on higher mortgage rates The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at a low-level last week, pointing to continued labor market strength that is driving the economy. Labor market resilience, together with elevated inflation have led financial markets and some economists to expect that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September. A few economists doubt that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs this year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims have been bouncing around in a 194,000-225,000 range this year.
Japan's March core inflation slows, weak yen complicates BOJ move Japan's core inflation slowed in March and an index gauging broader price trends fell below 3% for the first time in over a year, as analysts warn yen weakness could complicate the central bank's policy deliberations. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food items but includes energy items, rose 2.6% in March from a year earlier, matching median market forecasts. It decelerated from a 2.8% rise in February due to a slowdown in food price increases but stayed comfortably above the central bank's 2% target. Meanwhile, a gauge of price gains that excludes fresh food and energy costs and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan moderated to 2.9% after increasing 3.2% in February. It was the first time since November 2022 that the index fell below 3%.
BOJ's Ueda signals possible rate hike if weak yen boosts inflation Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the central bank may raise interest rates again if the yen's declines significantly push up inflation, highlighting the impact currency moves may have on the timing of the next policy shift. "There's a possibility the weak yen could push up trend inflation through rises in imported goods prices," Ueda said in a press conference after attending the Group of 20 (G20) finance leaders' meeting in Washington. "If the impact becomes too big to ignore, it might lead to a change in monetary policy," he said, signaling the chance of another rate hike depending on the inflationary impact of the weak yen. The BOJ will scrutinize how the yen's declines so far this year could affect the economy and prices and take the findings into account in producing fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts due at next week's policy meeting, Ueda said.
US dollar gains after strong data, Fed comments on rate cuts The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.71, -6.14 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.75, -5.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.64, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.75. Moving in a range of 36.86-36.895 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.80-37.00 today. The dollar rose as a mixed batch of US data did little to shake views that the economy is still on solid ground, suggesting the Federal Reserve will likely delay the timing of its first interest rate cut since 2020 to later this year. Comments from New York Fed President John Williams saying there is no urgent need to cut interest rates right now given the strength of the economy, also helped lift the dollar. The New York Fed president is always a voter on the central bank's policy-setting committee. A warning by finance chiefs of the United States, Japan and Korea over sharp decline in the yen and won weighed, however, on the dollar overnight and gave the yen some rare respite. But the impact has since dissipated.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
