- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.05-36.12 this morning supportive level at 35.95 resistance level at 36.25
· SET Index: 1,391.7 (+0.17%), 13 Feb 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,953.2 (-1.38%), 13 Feb 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.55 (-1.82 bps), 13 Feb 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.31 (+14.00 bps), 13 Feb 2024
- Sharp US Treasury yield decline on pause as Fed shows patience on rates
- US January deficit drops sharply as receipts grow, tax refunds fall
- Euro zone banks face new slate of risks, supervisor warns
- Bitcoin hits $50k level for first time in more than two years
Rising rents push US inflation higher; rate cuts still expected in 2024 US consumer prices rose more than expected in January amid a surge in the cost of rental housing, but the pick-up in inflation did not change expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the first half of this year. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.3% last month after gaining 0.2% in December, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Shelter, which includes rents, accounted for more than two-thirds of the rise in the CPI. Food prices rose 0.4%, the most in a year, which was partly blamed on winter storms. Grocery food inflation also increased 0.4%, the largest gain since January 2023. In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 3.1% after advancing 3.4% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would gain 0.2% on the month and rise 2.9% on a year-on-year basis. The annual increase in consumer prices has moderated from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
Labor worries, costs drag small business sentiment down by most in 13 months US small business sentiment fell to its lowest since May 2023 in January, according to a report published Tuesday, as labor costs and slowed sales squeeze bottom lines. The National Federation of Independent Business monthly sentiment index fell by 2 points, the largest decrease since December 2022, to 89.9 in January from 91.9 in December. The drop follows what had been the index's first increase in five months in December and keeps it below its 50-year average of 98 for a 25th-straight month. Labor quality and inflation were both a top concern for business owners in January. As costs increase, sales conditions have tightened with the share of owners reporting profit growth falling to a net negative 30% from a net negative 25% in December.
German investor morale improves, rate cut hopes have 'doping effect’ German investor morale improved more than expected in February on hopes of interest rate cuts, despite a dire assessment of current conditions. The institute reported a rise in its economic sentiment index to 19.9 points from 15.2 points in January. The February increase, the seventh in a row, beat expectations of analysts polled by Reuters of a reading of 17.5. According to ZEW president Achim Wambach, over two-thirds of respondents expect the European Central Bank to make interest rate cuts in the coming six months, and nearly three-quarters are anticipating imminent rate cuts by the US central bank. Financial markets, however, have been scaling back their bets on rate cuts from the biggest central banks in recent weeks as inflationary pressures linger and US economic data remains mostly strong.
US dollar rises to three-month high after inflation data, The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.55, -1.82 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.31, +14.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.80 Moving in a range of 36.05-36.12 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.95-36.25 today. The dollar rose to three-month peaks, after data showed US inflation rose more than expected in January, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in March. The greenback also topped 150 yen for the first time since November following the data. Data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% monthly in January, above the 0.2% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. On a year-on-year basis, it gained 3.1% versus the 2.9% estimated growth. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month after rising 0.3% in December.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
