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Daily Market Insight: 28 April 2023

28 Apr 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.12-34.15 this morning supportive level at 34.00 resistance level at 34.25

·         SET Index: 1,531.2 (-0.83%), 27 April 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,135.4 (+1.94%), 27 April 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.52 (+1.36 bps), 27 April 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.53 (+10.00 bps), 27 April 2023

 

  • U.S. GDP slows to 1.1% in the first quarter
  • EU sentiment flat as services optimism offsets industry gloom
  • Tokyo CPI inflation beats expectations in April, signals pressure on BOJ
  • US dollar edges higher as GDP, jobless claims affirm rate hike bets

 

U.S. GDP slows to 1.1% in the first quarter U.S. economic growth slowed by more than expected in the first quarter, according to preliminary data from the Commerce Department. Real gross domestic product in the world's largest economy increased at an annual rate of 1.1% during the January to March period, slowing from 2.6% in the final three months of 2022. Economists had predicted that the reading would come in at 2.0%.U.S. government debt came under pressure following the release of the data, with the policy-sensitive United States 2-Year yield inching up 0.12 percentage points to 4.0476% as of 10:06 ET. The United States 10-Year, a key marker of investor confidence and a proxy for global borrowing costs, climbed 0.07 percentage points to 3.509%. Prices move inversely to yields.

 

EU sentiment flat as services optimism offsets industry gloom Euro zone economic sentiment was broadly unchanged overall in April, as a pick-up among consumers and retail and services sectors offset a gloomier view among manufacturers, while price expectations continued to fall. The European Commission's monthly survey showed on Thursday that economic sentiment in the 20 countries sharing the euro rose to 99.3 points in April from a downwardly revised 99.2 in March. It was the indicator's fourth consecutive month between 99 and 100. Economists polled by Reuters had expected an improvement to 99.9 points. Sentiment in industry slipped for the third straight month, against expectations of a rise, as production expectations and assessments of order books worsened.

 

Tokyo CPI inflation beats expectations in April, signals pressure on BOJ Consumer price index inflation in Japan’s capital rose more than expected in April, moving back towards 40-year highs after a brief decline and likely signaling more pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy this year.  The Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as fresh food, rose 3.5% in April, data from the Statistics Bureau showed on Friday. The reading beat expectations that inflation would remain steady from the prior month, at 3.2%.  Including volatile items, Tokyo CPI rose 3.5% in April, more than expectations of 3.1% and the prior month’s reading of 3.3%.  The reading was largely driven by an uptick in the prices of food and household goods, which offset falling electricity prices. The Japanese government had introduced subsidies on household electricity bills earlier this year, in a bid to reduce inflation.

 

US dollar edges higher as GDP, jobless claims affirm rate hike bets The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.52, +1.36 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.52, +2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.53, +10.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.10 Moving in a range of 34.12-34.15 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. The dollar rose on Thursday as weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the first quarter is viewed as not likely to deter the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week. The advance estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 1.1% annualized rate during the period. The economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.0% rate. However, investors focused on the quarterly inflation number within the GDP report. Core personal consumption expenditure prices rose 4.9% in the first three months of the year, higher than the 4.7% consensus and up from the fourth quarter figure.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC