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Daily Market Insight: 16 March 2023

16 Mar 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.50-34.60 this morning, supportive level at 34.45 resistance level at 34.75

·         SET Index: 1,565.0 (+2.66%), 15 March 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,891.9 (-0.70%), 15 March 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.42 (-0.49 bps), 15 March 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.51 (-13.00 bps), 14 March 2023


  • U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in February
  • Japan exports up for 2 straight years, but global headwinds point to soft outlook
  • Australian employment rises more than expected in Feb
  • Dollar gains in safe-haven buying as Credit Suisse sparks wider banking fears


U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in February U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in February and the rise in prices in January was not as large as initially thought, offering some hopeful signs in the fight against inflation. The producer price index for final demand slipped 0.1% last month, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Data for January was revised down to show the PPI increasing 0.3% instead of 0.7% as previously reported. In the 12 months through February, the PPI increased 4.6% after rising 5.7% in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.3% on the month and advancing 5.4% year-on-year. The government reported on Tuesday that consumer prices rose strongly in February, though the annual increase was the smallest since September 2021. The decline in the PPI was led by a 0.2% drop in goods prices, which followed a 1.2% increase in January. A 36.1% plunge in the cost of eggs accounted for more than 80% of the decrease in goods prices.


Japan exports up for 2 straight years, but global headwinds point to soft outlook Japan posted two straight years of export gains, led by solid U.S.-bound shipments of cars, although expectations of a strong recovery in demand are quickly fading amid global monetary tightening and worries about banks worldwide. The world’s third-biggest economy has struggled to make a solid post-COVID recovery, undermined by lackluster household consumption and a global slowdown. Slowing shipments to China have also shattered policymakers’ hopes for a quick rebound from the pandemic doldrums. The trade data by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) showed on Thursday Japan’s exports grew 6.5% year-on-year in February, undershooting a 7.1% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll.


Australian employment rises more than expected in Feb Australia’s job market grew more than expected in February, data showed on Thursday, while unemployment fell back to near 50-year lows as a higher-than-usual number of people returned to the workforce from switching roles or a break. The number of employed people in the country increased by 64,600 in February to 13.8 million, beating expectations for an increase of 48,500 people, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed. This pushed the participation rate up to 66.6%, while the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 points to 5.8%, coming close to its lowest level in nearly 50 years. The surge in employment comes after the job market contracted for two consecutive months, amid an increased number of people changing jobs, or taking extended breaks.


Dollar gains in safe-haven buying as Credit Suisse sparks wider banking fears The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.42, -0.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.46, -4.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.51, -13.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.51 Moving in a range of 34.50-34.60 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.20-34.70 today. The dollar rose on Wednesday on safe-haven buying after Credit Suisse's stock tumbled following the disclosure of "weaknesses" in its financial reporting that renewed investor concerns that a full-blown global banking crisis may be brewing. European currencies fell sharply against the dollar, with Credit Suisse shares plummeting 24.2% after its biggest investor, citing regulatory issues about the size of its holding, said it was unable to increase its stake. Credit Suisse's 2022 annual report published on Tuesday cited "material weaknesses" in internal controls over financial reporting, noting that it had not yet stemmed customer outflows. Concerns about the Swiss bank led the European banking index to fall 6.9%, its biggest one-day drop in nearly 13 months and triggered a plunge in European and U.S. bond yields. Investors question whether the Federal Reserve and other central banks can keep hiking interest rates to curb inflation.

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC