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Daily Market Insight: 7 February 2023

7 Feb 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 33.65-33.75 this morning, supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.80

·         SET Index: 1,682.1 (-0.37%), 6 Feb 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,111.1 (-0.62%), 6 Feb 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (+6.02 bps), 6 Feb 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.63 (+10.00 bps), 3 Feb 2023


  • U.S. service sector rebounds in January
  • Euro zone investor morale rises for fourth month in a row
  • Japan Dec real wages post first rise in 9 months on 26-year-high nominal growth
  • Oil prices rise on China hopes, but Fed caution limits gains


U.S. service sector rebounds in January U.S. services industry activity rebounded strongly in January, with new orders recovering and prices paid by businesses for materials continuing to rise at a moderate pace, hopeful signs for the economy as it braces for a possible recession this year. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Friday its non-manufacturing PMI increased to 55.2 last month. The index dropped to 49.2 in December, falling the below the 50 level, which signals contraction, for the first time since May 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the non-manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4. The services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is benefiting from consumers switching spending from goods. Demand for goods, which are typically bought on credit, has been undercut by the Federal Reserve's fastest interest rate hiking cycle the 1980s.


Euro zone investor morale rises for fourth month in a row Investor morale in the euro zone improved for the fourth month in a row in February to reach its highest level since March 2022, but remained in negative territory as the possibility of a stagnant economy comes into focus, a survey showed on Monday. Sentix’s index for the euro zone rose to -8.0 points for February from -17.5 in January, beating analysts’ expectations of a reading of -12.8. “The increase of 9.5 points signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, the scenario of stagnation is gaining in contour” as the absence of an energy crisis and rosy corporate news contribute to a turnaround, Sentix Managing Director Patrick Hussy said in a statement. An expectations index rose to -6.0 from -15.8 in January, hitting its highest level since last February, while an index on the current situation also rose, to -10.0 from -19.3.


Japan Dec real wages post first rise in 9 months on 26-year-high nominal growth Japan's real wages rose in December for the first time since March despite rising inflation, as nominal pay grew at the fastest pace in nearly 26 years with robust winter bonuses. The market closely watches wage trends in the world's third largest economy as high pay growth to counter price increases is seen as a crucial condition for the Bank of Japan to scale back its ultra-loose monetary easing. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a gauge of households' purchasing power, gained 0.1% in December from a year earlier to mark the first rise in nine months, the labor ministry data showed. Total cash earnings, or nominal wages, grew 4.8% year-on-year in December, posting the biggest hike since January 1997's 6.6%.


Oil prices rise on China hopes, but Fed caution limits gains The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, +6.02 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.54, +10.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.63, +10.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.51 Moving in a range of 33.65-33.75 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.40-33.80 today. Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as markets held out for a swift recovery in Chinese demand this year, although anticipation of an address by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept traders from making big bets. Crude prices recovered sharply on Monday after the International Energy Agency reiterated that a recovery in China will drive oil demand to record highs this year, as the country marked a clear pivot away from its strict anti-COVID policies in January. But economic data released last week painted a somewhat mixed picture of the world’s second-largest economy, as it grapples with rising COVID-19 cases. Still, air and road transport data for January showed a clear improvement in travel demand, potentially heralding a bigger bounce back.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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