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Daily Market Insight: 6 February 2023

6 Feb 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 33.55-33.66 this morning, supportive level at 33.35 resistance level at 33.65

·         SET Index: 1,688.4 (+0.34%), 3 Feb 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,136.5 (-1.04%), 3 Feb 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.45 (+0.01 bps), 3 Feb 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.53 (+13.00 bps), 3 Feb 2023


  • U.S. nonfarm payroll growth blows past forecasts in January, up 517k
  • Euro zone business activity returned to growth in January
  • Japan Jan services activity growth at three-month high
  • Dollar jumps after "monster" job report


U.S. nonfarm payroll growth blows past forecasts in January, up 517k Job growth in the U.S. blew past expectations in January, the latest in a series of bewilderingly strong data from the labor market and a strong reality check to hopes for a quick turn in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle. The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by 517,000 through the middle of the month, abruptly snapping a four-month trend of slowing job gains. Analysts had expected a further slowdown to 185,000, which would have been the slowest job growth in nearly two years. December's payroll data were also revised up by 37,000 and November's by 34,000, reinforcing the surprise in the January numbers. As such, the numbers provided further evidence that a labor market that overheated as the pandemic eased is still only slowly losing steam, despite a succession of big interest rate hikes by the Fed. Average hourly earnings, meanwhile, rose only a modest 0.3%, well below the pace of gains seen earlier last year.


Euro zone business activity returned to growth in January Business activity in the euro zone bounced back to growth in January, according to a survey which suggested the bloc’s economy might again escape a contraction this quarter and that the upturn may accelerate. In the last quarter of 2022, the euro zone eked outgrowth, managing to avoid a recession, as gross domestic product expanded 0.1%, data from Eurostat showed on Tuesday, outperforming expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.1% drop. S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to a seven-month high of 50.3 last month from 49.3 in December, just ahead of a 50.2 preliminary reading. January was the first month the index has been above the 50 mark since June.


Japan Jan services activity growth at three-month high Japan's services sector activity grew at its fastest pace in three months in January, but worsening inflation and employment trends point to challenges ahead, a business survey showed, as policymakers bet on the country's economic reopening to lift demand. Friday's final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose in January to a seasonally adjusted 52.3 from December's 51.1, marking the fastest pace since October. The final figure was slightly lower than the flash reading of 52.4 but stayed above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction for a fifth straight month. The subindexes for new orders and demand from overseas customers showed growth for a fifth month, thanks to Japan's relaxation of border controls, which boosted monthly visitors to the country above one million in December for the first time since February 2020.


Dollar jumps after "monster" job report The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.45, +0.01 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.48, +1.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.53, +13.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.00 Moving in a range of 33.55-33.66 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.40-33.80 today. The dollar jumped on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers added significantly more jobs in January than economists expected, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more leeway to keep hiking interest rates. The dollar was last up 1.12% at 102.92 on the day against a basket of currencies, the highest since Jan. 12 and it is on track for its best day since Sept. 23. The euro fell 0.98% to $1.08040. The dollar gained 1.82% against the Japanese yen to 131.20, the highest since Jan. 18 and is on track for its best day since June 17. Sterling fell 1.39% to $1.20550, the lowest since Jan. 6 and its worst day since Dec. 15. The surprisingly strong payrolls number reversed a move from Wednesday when traders raised bets that the U.S. central bank would stop hiking borrowing costs after a widely expected 25-basis-point increase in March.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC