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Daily Market Insight: 2 February 2023

2 Feb 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.65-32.80 this morning, supportive level at 32.55 resistance level at 32.89

·         SET Index: 1,685.8 (+0.85%), 1 Feb 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,119.2 (+1.04%), 1 Feb 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.49 (-3.09 bps), 1 Feb 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.39 (-13.00 bps), 1 Feb 2023


  • Fed delivers small rate increase; Powell suggests 'couple' more hikes coming
  • ECB to raise rates again and face questions about future path
  • BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves
  • Oil prices buoyed by dollar weakness as central banks take focus


Fed delivers small rate increase; Powell suggests 'couple' more hikes coming The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it had turned a key corner in the fight against high inflation, but that "victory" would still require its benchmark overnight interest rate to be increased further and remain elevated at least through 2023. In announcing its latest policy decision, the U.S. central bank scaled back to a quarter-percentage-point rate increase after a year of larger hikes and swept aside in its statement the long list of reasons, from war to the pandemic, that were driving prices higher to say simply that "inflation has eased.“ Yet policymakers also projected "ongoing increases" in borrowing costs would be needed, a still open-ended commitment that did not yet pinpoint when the rate hikes might stop, and pushed back against an expectation in financial markets that the Fed would pause soon and, indeed, cut rates later this year.


ECB to raise rates again and face questions about future path The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates again on Thursday and pencil in more hikes for the next few months, with the only open question being how big these will be. The ECB has been increasing rates at a record pace to fight a sudden bout of high inflation in the euro zone – the byproduct of factors including the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and an energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro is seen raising its deposit rate by another half a percentage point to 2.5% on Thursday, in line with what it said in December. This would take the rate the ECB pays on bank deposits to the highest level since November 2008, after a steady climb from a record low of -0.5% in July.


BoE set to lift rates to 14-year high, might hint at next moves The Bank of England is poised to raise interest rates for the 10th time in a row on Thursday to keep up its fight against rampant inflation, but it might also drop a hint about when the steep climb in borrowing costs will end. With Britain's economy already forecast to go into recession and fare worse than its peers in 2023, Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues must judge how much of a delayed impact their run of rate hikes so far, starting in December 2021, will have. Unemployment is close to its lowest since 1974 but the housing market is cooling fast and confidence among consumers and employers is weak. Strikes by public service workers have added to the sense of gloom in an economy still struggling to adjust to Brexit and the coronavirus pandemic.


Oil prices buoyed by dollar weakness as central banks take focus The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.49, -3.09 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.555, -2.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.39, -13.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.77 Moving in a range of 32.65-32.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. Oil prices recovered a measure of recent losses on Thursday as weakness in the dollar benefited commodity buyers, with markets now awaiting more cues from central bank meetings in Europe and the UK. Crude prices plummeted on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve hiked rates as expected and signaled that it plans to keep raising interest rates in the coming months, as it battles elevated inflation. This saw markets pricing in a greater possibility of a U.S. economic slowdown this year, which bodes poorly for oil demand. But the possibility of a recession also weighed on the dollar, as traders bet that slowing economic growth is likely to push the Fed into reversing its hawkish stance later this year. The greenback tumbled to an over nine-month low against a basket of currencies.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC

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