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Daily Market Insight: 31 January 2023

31 Jan 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.77-32.82 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.85

·         SET Index: 1,681.2 (-0.00%), 30 Jan 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,070.6 (+0.25%), 27 Jan 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.48 (+0.39 bps), 30 Jan 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.55 (+3.00 bps), 30 Jan 2023


  • U.S. pending home sales post first gain in seven months in December
  • Euro zone economic sentiment rises in January to seven-month high
  • Chinese business activity rebounds in January after COVID pivot
  • Oil prices tread water as markets weigh China recovery, Fed caution


U.S. pending home sales post first gain in seven months in December Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes increased for the first time in seven months in December as mortgage rates declined, another hopeful sign that the embattled housing market was starting to stabilize. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Friday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose 2.5% to 76.9 last month. That was the first increase in pending home sales since May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.9%. Pending home sales decreased 33.8% in December on a year-on-year basis. Contracts increased in the South and West but fell in the Northeast and Midwest. That could see existing home sales rebounding or posting a modest decline after logging their 11th straight monthly decrease in December.


Euro zone economic sentiment rises in January to seven-month high Euro zone economic sentiment rose to a seven-month high in January on more optimism across all sectors except construction, with inflation expectations among consumers and companies both sharply down, data showed on Monday. The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose to 99.9 this month, above an upwardly revised 97.1 in December – the highest value of the index since June 2022. The rising optimism underlines expectations that an expected economic downturn in the 20 countries sharing the euro, if there is one at all, is likely to be shallow, despite the energy price and cost of living crises and the war in Ukraine. But the improving sentiment, and therefore better economic growth prospects, would likely keep the European Central Bank raising interest rates to curb inflation that was above 9% in December against the bank’s target of 2%.


Chinese business activity rebounds in January after COVID pivot Chinese business activity grew past expectations in January, government data showed on Tuesday, as the recent relaxing of anti-COVID measures and the Lunar New Year holiday both helped break a three-month slump. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) grew 50.1 in January, higher than expectations of 49.8 and December’s reading of 47.0. A reading above 50 indicates contraction. The country’s massive services sector also rebounded sharply from a three-month decline, with the non-manufacturing PMI advancing to a six-month high of 54.4, higher than expectations of 52.0 and well above December’s reading of 41.6. This helped the Chinese composite PMI rebound to 52.9 in January from 42.6 in the prior month, with the reading now back comfortably in expansion territory.


Oil prices tread water as markets weigh China recovery, Fed caution The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.48, +0.39 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.51, +1.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.55, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.74 Moving in a range of 32.77-32.82 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. Oil prices were muted in early trade on Tuesday as optimism over better-than-expected economic data from China was offset by caution over an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and an OPEC decision on production. Chinese business activity grew more than expected in January, government data showed, indicating that the country’s economy was clearly on a path of recovery after it relaxed most anti-COVID restrictions earlier in the month. The data helped further the notion that a Chinese economic recovery will help spur increased crude demand in 2023. The International Energy Agency recently forecast that crude demand will rise to record highs in 2023 on the back of a Chinese recovery. But anticipation of a slew of central bank meetings this week and fears of a near-term supply glut limited gains in oil prices. Crude markets were also nursing steep losses from Monday.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC