- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.75-32.87 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.90
· SET Index: 1,671.3 (-0.64%), 26 Jan 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,060.4 (+1.09%), 26 Jan 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.46 (-0.69 bps), 26 Jan 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.49 (+3.00 bps), 26 Jan 2023
- U.S. economy posts strong growth in Q4, but with underlying weakness
- Consumer inflation in Japan's capital hits near 42-year high, keeps BOJ under pressure
- Philippines 2022 GDP growth quickest in over 4 decades, but outlook challenging
- Oil treads water ahead of OPEC+ panel meeting, PCE inflation data
U.S. economy posts strong growth in Q4, but with underlying weakness The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter, but that likely exaggerates the nation's health as a measure of domestic demand rose at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years, reflecting the impact of higher borrowing costs. The Commerce Department's advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday showed half of the boost to growth came from a sharp rise in inventory held by businesses, some of which is likely unwanted. While consumer spending maintained a solid pace of growth, a big chunk of the increase in consumption was early in the fourth quarter. Retail sales weakened sharply in November and December. Business spending on equipment contracted last quarter and is likely to remain on the backfoot as demand for goods softens.
Consumer inflation in Japan's capital hits near 42-year high, keeps BOJ under pressure Core consumer prices in Japan's capital, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, rose 4.3% in January from a year earlier, marking the fastest annual gain in nearly 42 years and keeping the central bank under pressure to phase out economic stimulus. While the government's energy subsidies starting next month will likely moderate price gains from February, the data heightens the chance that inflation will stay well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target in coming months as companies continue to steadily pass on higher costs to households. The rise in the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food but includes fuel, exceeded a median market forecast for a 4.2% gain and marked the fastest year-on-year increase since May 1981.
Philippines 2022 GDP growth quickest in over 4 decades, but outlook challenging The Philippine economy ended 2022 with the fastest growth in over four decades underpinned by a robust final quarter, but analysts and policymakers warn that a global slowdown and soaring inflation will make for a difficult year ahead. Manila's fourth quarter forecast-beating annual growth of 7.2% reported by the statistics agency compared with the 6.5% pace expected in a Reuters poll, and brought full-year expansion to 7.6%, the fastest since 1976 and above the government's target of 6.5 to 7.5%. Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan attributed the stellar fourth-quarter performance to strong domestic demand, rise in jobs, and "revenge" spending following the lifting of pandemic curbs and full reopening in the last three months of the year.
Oil treads water ahead of OPEC+ panel meeting, PCE inflation data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.46, -0.69 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.475, -0.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.35-2.55. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.49, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.69 Moving in a range of 34.75-32.87 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.50-32.90 today. Oil prices moved little on Friday and were set to end the week flat amid caution over an upcoming OPEC+ panel meeting, as well as more cues on the U.S. economy from a reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Ministers from Algeria, Kuwait, Venezuela, Russia and Oman are set to meet virtually next week as part of a panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). The panel can call for a full meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and can also decide on crude output from the members of the panel. But Reuters recently reported that the panel is unlikely to alter production levels, given that crude prices recovered sharply in early 2023, and that demand is forecast to surge as the Chinese economy recovers.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC