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Daily Market Insight: 26 January 2023

26 Jan 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 32.72-32.80 this morning, supportive level at 32.60 resistance level at 32.85

·         SET Index: 1,682.1 (-0.05%), 25 Jan 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,016.2 (-0.02%), 25 Jan 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.47 (+0.97 bps), 25 Jan 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.46 (+0.00 bps), 25 Jan 2023


  • Key US Inflation Gauge Seen Slowing But Leaving Fed Wanting More
  • German business morale brightens further in January
  • New Zealand CPI inflation sticks to 32-year high in Q4, misses RBNZ forecast
  • Dollar near eight-month low ahead of central bank meetings


Key US Inflation Gauge Seen Slowing But Leaving Fed Wanting More The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges probably cooled in December to the slowest paces in more than a year, reinforcing a step down in the pace of interest-rate hikes but likely not enough for officials to discuss a pause. Economists project a 5% annual increase in the personal consumption expenditures price index due Friday, and a 4.4% rise in the core metric, which excludes food and energy. Both would be the smallest advances since late 2021 and estimates for monthly changes also point to moderation compared with earlier last year. Such figures would be consistent with forecasts that the Fed will further dial back the pace of interest-rate hikes to a quarter-point move at the conclusion of their two-day meeting on Feb. 1. But inflation remains well above their 2% goal and a still-tight labor market risks keeping it elevated.


German business morale brightens further in January German business morale brightened in January as Europe’s largest economy started the new year with easing inflation and an improved outlook, a survey said on Wednesday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 90.2, in line with consensus according to a Reuters poll of analysts and up from a reading of 88.6 in December. The increase is driven by considerably less pessimistic expectations, while companies were, however, somewhat less satisfied with their current situation, Ifo said. The euro zone largest economy is expected to narrowly avoid recession this year with price-adjusted growth of 0.2%, according to the German government’s annual economic report seen by Reuters on Wednesday.


New Zealand CPI inflation sticks to 32-year high in Q4, misses RBNZ forecast New Zealand’s consumer price index remained pinned to a 32-year high in the fourth quarter, heralding continued pressure on the economy from historically high price pressures, although the reading did come below the Reserve Bank’s expectations. CPI inflation grew an annualized 7.2% in the three months to December, data from Statistics New Zealand showed on Wednesday, remaining steady from the prior quarter and slightly beating expectations of 7.1%. The index remained at its highest level since June 1990. On a quarterly basis, inflation grew 1.4% - slightly more than expectations of 1.3%, and less than the September quarter’s reading of 2.2%. Food price inflation continued to be among the biggest drivers of price pressures, given that the country imports a bulk of its food requirements. Increased house construction and household utilities costs also factored into the inflation increase.


Dollar near eight-month low ahead of central bank meetings The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.47, +0.97 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.45, +2.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.46, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.81 Moving in a range of 32.72-32.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.60-33.90 today. The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. Trading was thin on Thursday, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year. Downbeat earnings and guidance from U.S. corporates and a string of tech sector layoffs have deepened fears of an economic downturn in the United States, leading investors to pare back expectations on how much longer the Federal Reserve will need to aggressively raise interest rates.


Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC