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Daily Market Insight: 9 December 2022

9 Dec 2022
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.67-34.80 this morning, supportive level at 34.65 resistance level at 34.85

·         SET Index: 1,620.5 (-0.11%), 8 Dec 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,963.5 (+0.75%), 8 Dec 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.60 (-1.10

bps), 8 Dec 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.48 (+6.0 bps), 8 Dec 2022

 

  • U.S. initial jobless claims rise to 230k as continuing claims hit 11-month high
  • UK labor market loses more momentum in November
  • China CPI, PPI inflation ease further in Nov amid COVID disruptions
  • Oil prices rebound from 1-year low, but head for steep weekly losses

 

U.S. initial jobless claims rise to 230k as continuing claims hit 11-month high The number of people in the U.S. claiming jobless benefits continued its gentle rise last week, adding to evidence that the labor market is cooling - if only slowly. Initial jobless claims rose to 230,000 last week from 226,000 the week before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday. That took the rolling average for initial claims over the last four weeks up to 230,000 - the highest it's been since September. Weekly claims data tend to be volatile around the Thanksgiving Holiday period, making the 4-week number a more reliable indicator of the trend. The BLS's weekly update also showed fresh evidence that hiring - at least in some sectors of the economy - may be slowing down. Continuing claims for benefits rose unexpectedly to 1.671 million, the highest level since January.

 

UK labor market loses more momentum in November Britain’s labor market cooled noticeably last month, with demand for staff and pay growth easing, and staff shortages became less acute, a survey showed on Thursday. The monthly index of demand for staff from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) trade body and accountants KPMG fell in November to 54.1 from 56.7 in October, the lowest reading since February 2021. The survey’s gauges of starting salaries and pay rates for permanent and temporary workers also fell to their lowest levels in around a year and a half. Hiring of permanent staff declined for a second month running. The survey, watched closely by the Bank of England as leading indicator of the labor market ahead of its interest rate decision next week, matched other signs that the economy is slowing.

 

China CPI, PPI inflation ease further in Nov amid COVID disruptions Chinese inflation eased further in November, data showed on Friday, as COVID-related disruptions hampered economic activity and saw both consumers and businesses cut back spending.  China's consumer price index fell to an annualized 1.6% in November from 2.1% in the prior month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The reading was in line with market estimates. On a monthly basis, the CPI index shrank 0.2% after marking a similar contraction in the prior month. The producer price index, which gauges inflation for manufacturing materials, fell at an annualized 1.3% in November- the same pace as seen in October. The reading was slightly better than estimates for a contraction of 1.4% but remained at its weakest level in two years.

 

Oil prices rebound from 1-year low, but head for steep weekly losses The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.60, -1.10 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.525, +0.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.40-2.90. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.48, +6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.80 Moving in a range of 34.67-34.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.70-35.00 today. Oil prices rose sharply from a one-year low on Friday as traders bought into heavily-discounted markets but were still set for deep losses this week as growing fears of a recession and rising interest rates eroded the outlook for crude demand. Markets largely looked past the shutdown of the U.S.-Canada Keystone pipeline after a spill in Kansas, with analysts opining that the disruption in supply did little in the face of worsening demand. Warnings of a U.S. recession in 2023, brought about by rising interest rates and inflation, saw crude markets plummet this week.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC