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Daily Market Insight: 15 November 2022

15 Nov 2022
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 35.65-35.725 this morning, supportive level at 35.60 resistance level at 35.90

·         SET Index: 1,623.4 (-0.85%), 14 Nov 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,957.3 (-0.90%), 14 Nov 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.79 (-5.70 bps), 14 Nov 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.88 (+6.0 bps), 14 Nov 2022

 

  • Fed may slow pace of rate hikes soon: Brainard
  • Euro zone Sept industrial output much stronger than expected
  • Japan Q3 GDP shrinks as high inflation, weakening yen bite
  • Gold pinned near 3-month high, copper slumps on China COVID woes

 

Fed may slow pace of rate hikes soon: Brainard The Federal Reserve will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled on Monday, as the U.S. central bank tries to figure out how high borrowing costs need to go and how long they should stay there to bring down inflation. Brainard is the second ranking Fed official in as many days, along with Governor Christopher Waller on Sunday, to indicate the Fed is ready to begin moving in smaller rate hike increments as soon as its December meeting, while still emphasizing what Brainard called the central bank's "resolve" to keep pushing rates higher as needed to battle a surge of inflation. The Fed raised its policy rate early this month to a range of 3.75%-4%, its fourth straight 75-basis-point interest-rate hike, as it seeks to rein in demand for goods, services, and labor to reduce inflation that's running more than three times the Fed's 2% target.

 

Euro zone Sept industrial output much stronger than expected Euro zone industrial production rose much more than expected in September, and output for August was revised upwards too, data showed on Monday, although economists said that may be partly due to manufacturers frontloading production before energy-related disruptions this winter. The stronger than expected industrial production helps explain why the euro zone still managed to grow 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the July-September period, despite strong headwinds from soaring energy prices and rising interest rates. The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.9% month-on-month in September for a 4.9% year-on-year gain.

 

Japan Q3 GDP shrinks as high inflation, weakening yen bite The Japanese economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter, preliminary data showed on Tuesday, as worsening inflation levels and further depreciation in the yen severely undercut economic growth in the country. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.3% in the three months to September 30, data from the Cabinet Office showed, ducking expectations for growth of 0.3% and falling well below the previous quarter’s reading of 1.1%. On an annualized basis, Japanese GDP shrank 1.2%, missing expectations for growth of 1.1% and shrinking substantially from a 4.6% reading in the prior quarter. The reading reflects the increasing pressure on the Japanese economy from rising inflation, with the core consumer price index hitting an eight-year high in September.

 

Gold pinned near 3-month high, copper slumps on China COVID woes The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.79, -5.70 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.83, -3.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.75-3.00. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.88,
+6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.81 Moving in a range of 35.66-35.725 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.50-36.20 today. Gold prices hovered near three-month highs on Tuesday as mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on the path of U.S. interest rates kept the dollar pinned to recent lows, while copper prices sank as rising COVID-19 cases in major importer China pointed to more potential demand disruption. While slower raises in interest rates will likely provide some near-term relief to gold and other metal prices, a steady rise in U.S. rates is likely to dent appeal for the yellow metal in the long run.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC