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Daily Market Insight: 25 May 2022

25 May 2022
  • USDTHB : moving in the range 34.10 – 34.25 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around  34.00 resistance level is around 34.30
  • SET Index: 1,626.2 (-0.55%), 24 May 2022
  • S&P 500 Index: 3,941.5 (-0.82%), 24 May 2022
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 3.04% (-2.40 bps), 24 May 2022
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 2.76 (-10.00bps), 24 May 2022

 

 

  • U.S. business activity slows in May, PMI data shows
  • Euro zone business growth slowed in May but still resilient
  • Record U.S. reverse repos highlight problem of investing excess cash
  • Dollar at one-month low as Lagarde comments lift euro

 

 

U.S. business activity slows in May, PMI data shows

U.S. business activity slowed moderately in May as higher prices cooled demand for services while renewed supply constraints because of COVID-19 lockdowns in China and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine hampered production at factories. U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to a reading of 53.8 this month from 56.0 in April, the lowest level in four months. Companies report that demand is coming under pressure from concerns over the cost of living, higher interest rates and a broader economic slowdown. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI decreased to a reading of 57.5 this month from 59.2 in April.

 

Euro zone business growth slowed in May but still resilient

Growth in euro zone business activity slowed this month but was still relatively strong despite a cost of living crisis putting a dent in consumer spending power and a shortage of raw materials holding back expansion in manufacturing, a preliminary survey showed. Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), released on Tuesday fell to 54.9 in May from 55.8 in April. May's services PMI fell to 56.3 from 57.7. Momentum in Britain's economy, outside the euro zone and European Union, slowed much more than expected this month, adding to recession worries as inflation pressures ratcheted higher.

 

Record U.S. reverse repos highlight problem of investing excess cash

Demand for the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase (RRP) facility has surged in the last few weeks, as the U.S. Treasury Department's reduced supply of short-term bills left investors few options to park excess cash. The Fed's reverse repo window attracted a record $2.045 trillion on Monday, as financial institutions continued to flood the facility with liquidity in exchange for Treasury collateral. The soaring RRP volume does not seem to be a concern for the Fed given that quantitative tightening will only begin next month. But it could be a problem if demand persists even after the Fed's asset portfolio starts to shrink

 

Dollar at one-month low as Lagarde comments lift euro

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.04, -2.40 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.97, -1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.92-3.02. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.76%, -10.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.19 Moving in a range from 34.10-34.25 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.10-34.30 today. The U.S. dollar index hit nearly a one-month low on Tuesday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone interest rates will likely be in positive territory by the end of the third quarter, giving the euro a boost. Lagarde's comments implied an increase of at least 50 basis points to the ECB deposit rate and fueled speculation of bigger hikes this summer to fight a surge in inflation tied to rising energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine and massive public-sector stimulus after the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.