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Daily Market Insight: 26 April 2022

26 Apr 2022
  • USDTHB : moving in the range 34.04-34.10 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around  34.05 resistance level is around 34.10
  • SET Index: 1,675.3 (-0.91%), 25 Apr 2022
  • S&P 500 Index: 4,296.1 (+0.57%), 25 Apr 2022
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.87 (+3.46 bps), 25 Apr 2022
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 2.81 (-9.00 bps), 25 Apr 2022

 

  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 3-Month Low
  • UK Factory Orders Index Falls to 6-Month Low: CBI
  • German Business Morale Unexpectedly Rises in April
  • Japan Jobless Rate Falls to 2.6% in March

Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 3-Month Low The Chicago Fed National Activity Index went down to 0.44 in March of 2022 from a downwardly revised 0.54 in February, the lowest in 3 months. Production-related indicators contributed +0.27, down slightly from +0.30 in February, and employment-related indicators contributed +0.16, down from +0.31. Meanwhile, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category was unchanged at -0.04 while the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved up to +0.06 in March from -0.03. Investors also await fresh numbers for new home sales and consumer confidence on Tuesday morning.

 

UK Factory Orders Index Falls to 6-Month Low: CBI The Confederation of British Industry's order book balance fell to 14 in April of 2022, the lowest in six months, from 26 in the previous month and below market expectations of 21. “Manufacturing orders and output continue to grow, albeit at slower rates. But the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the Covid-related supply crunch, with cost increases and concerns over the availability of raw materials at their highest since the mid-1970s. It’s little wonder that sentiment has deteriorated sharply over the past three months and manufacturers are now scaling back their investment plans”, said Anna Leach, CBI deputy chief economist. Over the three months to April, growth in output volumes slowed to +19% from +27% and new orders also rose more slowly +22% compared with +38% in the three months to January. Firms expected growth to slow further over the next three months.

 

German Business Morale Unexpectedly Rises in April The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany rose to 91.8 in April of 2022 from March’s 14-month low of 90.8, beating market expectations of 89.1 as companies were less pessimistic after the initial shock of the war in Ukraine. Both current conditions (97.2 vs 97.1) and expectations (86.7 vs 84.9) improved. Supply chain problems remain a major problem for industry, with 75% of companies reporting problems, and three out of four retailers want to raise prices. Germany's economy appears resilient after the first shock following the war in Ukraine, according to Ifo economists.

 

Japan Jobless Rate Falls to 2.6% in March Japan’s unemployment rate fell to a 1-year low of 2.6% in March 2022, lower than the 2.7% reported in February which was also the consensus forecast for March. The number of unemployed dropped by 4.8% or 90 thousand to 1.8 million, while those employed declined slightly by 0.2% or 110 thousand to 66.84 million. The non-seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate also stood at 62.1%. Meanwhile, the jobs-to-application ratio was at a near 2-year high of 1.22 in March, in line with market expectations.

 

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.87, +3.46 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.75, -4.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.71-2.79. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.81%, -9.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.00, moving in a range from 34.04-34.10 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.05-34.10 today. US Treasury yields slipped but remained near multi-year highs as Fed indicated to commit to raising rates “expeditiously” to bring down inflation, and a 50-basis point rate increase was “on the table” for May