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Daily Market Insight: 18 Nov 2021

18 Nov 2021

 

  • USDTHB : moving in the range 32.60 – 32.66 this morning, This might be opportunity to buy USD, Support level is around 32.50
  • SET Index: 1,644.6 (+0.04%), 17 Nov 2021
  • S&P 500 Index: 4,688.7 (-0.26%), 17 Nov 2021
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 1.98% (+3.00 bps), 17 Nov 2021
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 1.60% (-3.00bps), 17 Nov 2021

 

  • Fed's Evans says taper to take until mid-2022 to complete
  • Here’s How Markets Might React If Biden Picks Lael Brainard as Fed Chair
  • ECB must be ready to act if inflation proves more durable: Schnabel
  • Dollar takes breather from rally, hovers just off 16-month top

 

Fed's Evans says taper to take until mid-2022 to complete

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans on Wednesday reiterated that it will take until the middle of next year to complete the Fed's wind-down of its bond-buying program even as the central bank checks to see if high inflation recedes as he expects. "We learned back in 2013 that tapering these asset purchases was preferable for financial market functioning; that if we did a sudden stop on our purchases that wasn't well received," Evans said. "It's going to take us until the middle of next year to complete that; we are going to be mindful of inflation; we're going to be looking to see how much additional accommodation is boosting inflation; if indeed that is the case, we'll be thinking about when the right time to start raising rates will be." Evans said he is less confident than a few months ago about his baseline view that inflation will recede next year.

 

Here’s How Markets Might React If Biden Picks Lael Brainard as Fed Chair

A decision by U.S. President Joe Biden to nominate Lael Brainard as Fed chair instead of Jerome Powell could provide a narrow window of opportunity for traders in rates and foreign-exchange markets even if the shock wears off relatively quickly. With the perception that Brainard might be less inclined to tighten monetary policy than the incumbent, the initial reaction in markets could see short-term interest rates pull back and a weakening of the dollar. But such moves could prove short-lived, as whichever candidate ends up in charge will ultimately be hostage to the uncertain inflation and growth landscape. Powell, who has been in the job since 2018, remains the betting-market favorite to continue in the role, but the odds for Brainard have increased of late.

 

ECB must be ready to act if inflation proves more durable: Schnabel

The ECB must be ready to rein in inflation in the euro zone if it proves more durable than forecast, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel said. Euro zone inflation hit 4.1% last month, more than twice the ECB's target, as consumers paid nearly a quarter more for energy and demand recovered faster than supply from last year's pandemic-related slump. Schnabel reaffirmed the ECB's view that price growth would moderate next year but cautioned that the outlook had become more uncertain and policymakers should keep their options open when they chart the path ahead for policy in December. "This means avoiding the mistake of a premature tightening of monetary policy in response to a temporary and possibly short-lived inflation spike," Schnabel said. "On the other hand, it means keeping a watchful eye on the upside risks to inflation."

 

Dollar takes breather from rally, hovers just off 16-month top

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.98, +3.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA, 10.1 years) was 1.99, +3.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 1.98-2.02. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.60%, -3.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.73 Moving in a range from 32.60-32.66 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.57-32.67 today. Meantime, The dollar hovered below a 16-month peak in early Asian trade on Thursday, having lost ground on the pound and yen overnight as the U.S. currency took a breather while traders considered whether its recent surge was starting to run out of steam.

 

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC