- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.15 – 33.17 this morning, supportive level at 33.05 resistance level at 33.25
- SET Index: 1,595.16 (+0.44%), 31 Aug 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,686.14 (-0.33%), 31 Aug 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.177 (+2.26 bps), 31 Aug 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.75 (+2.00 bps), 31 Aug 2026
- US-Iran tensions remain elevated despite signals of limited escalation
- Chicago PMI posts sharp downside surprise
- German inflation edges higher as energy costs keep pressure on ECB
- China PMIs signal continued economic weakness in August
- South Korea exports surge as AI chip demand remains strong
- Dollar edges lower amid light newsflow
US-Iran tensions remain elevated despite signals of limited escalation
Crude prices started the week higher as escalating US-Iran tensions kept geopolitical risk elevated. The US struck IRGC missile launchers on Larak Island over the weekend, prompting Iranian retaliation against US bases, while Trump warned that Washington would respond and is reportedly considering further limited strikes to constrain Iran’s military capabilities around Hormuz. Supply concerns were compounded by disruptions at Russia’s Yaroslavl refinery following drone attacks.
Chicago PMI posts sharp downside surprise
Chicago PMI fell sharply to 47.1 from 57.6, well below the 57.8 consensus and slipping back below the 50 threshold into contraction. The sizeable downside surprise points to a notable deterioration in Chicago-area business activity and adds to signs of softer US economic momentum, with the weak print also marginally negative for the dollar.
German inflation edges higher as energy costs keep pressure on ECB
German inflation edged higher to 2.9% YoY in August from 2.8%, marking the strongest reading since April but remaining below the 3.1% consensus. Higher energy costs amid persistent Middle East tensions drove the increase, while services and food inflation eased. Together with firmer inflation readings across France and Spain, the data reinforce expectations for another ECB rate hike in September.
China PMIs signal continued economic weakness in August
China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a second straight month in August, although the official PMI improved to 49.8 from 49.2, beating the 49.5 consensus. Encouragingly, new orders and export orders returned to expansion, but the non-manufacturing PMI remained weak at 49.0, below expectations and marking a second consecutive contraction. The composite PMI edged up to 49.5.
South Korea exports surge as AI chip demand remains strong
South Korea’s exports maintained strong momentum in August, supported by robust AI-related demand and semiconductor shipments, reinforcing the BoK’s hawkish stance following two consecutive rate hikes. Working-day adjusted exports surged 72.5% YoY, while imports rose 22.5%, generating a USD 34.7bn trade surplus.
Dollar edges lower amid light newsflow
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.177, +2.26 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.13, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.75, +2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.13, moving in a range of 33.15 – 33.17 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.05 – 33.25 today. The dollar edged lower amid limited currency-specific catalysts. US-Iran tensions remained in focus following an exchange of strikes over the weekend, while the absence of tier-one US data and limited policy signals from Fed Chair Warsh at the G20 offered little direction. The euro benefited from the softer dollar, reclaiming 1.1600 ahead of EU PMI and inflation data. The British pound traded largely sideways amid thin liquidity from the UK Summer Bank Holiday, while the Japanese yen strengthened modestly, pulling USD/JPY back from the 160.00 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
