- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.095 – 33.15 this morning, supportive level at 33.00 resistance level at 33.20
- SET Index: 1,609.06 (-0.33%), 14 Aug 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,785.76 (-0.17%), 14 Aug 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.085 (+0.86 bps), 14 Aug 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.68 (+5.00 bps), 14 Aug 2026
- US retail sales slump, signaling softer Q3 consumptio
- Oil gains as US–Iran tensions remain elevated
- Eurozone Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 0.4% in second estimate
- Japan’s Q2 growth slows more than expected
- US flags Thailand’s deep links to Chinese supply chains
- Dollar retreats as markets continue to favour a Fed hold
US retail sales slump, signaling softer Q3 consumption
US retail sales fell 0.6% M/M in July (exp. +0.1%; prev. +0.2%), while sales excluding autos declined 0.3% (exp. +0.2%). Underlying demand was also weak, with sales excluding autos and gasoline down 0.2% and the GDP-linked control group falling 0.4% (exp. +0.3%). Declines were led by nonstore retailers, autos, gasoline stations, and electronics, while annual sales growth slowed to 5.0% from 6.7%. Although some weakness may reflect a reversal of World Cup-related and front-loaded June spending, the broad-based softness points to a notable loss of consumer momentum at the start of Q3.
Oil gains as US–Iran tensions remain elevated
Crude prices ended the week higher as geopolitical risks remained elevated despite limited Middle East newsflow. The US signalled an intensified maximum-pressure campaign and unprecedented measures against Iran, while the UKMTO reported that a tanker was struck by a drone while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Eurozone Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 0.4% in second estimate
Eurostat’s second estimate confirmed that the Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% QoQ in Q2 2026, maintaining a moderate pace despite the Middle East-driven energy shock. Household spending and improving productivity supported growth, while employment increased by 0.1%.
Japan’s Q2 growth slows more than expected
Japan’s preliminary Q2 GDP grew just 0.3% q/q (1.1% annualized), below forecasts of 0.5% and 2.0%. Domestic demand was weak, with flat consumption and a 1.2% fall in capital spending, while stronger exports helped support overall growth.
US flags Thailand’s deep links to Chinese supply chains
The White House classified Thailand as a Tier 2 transshipment risk, citing high trade volumes and deep integration with Chinese supply chains. While no immediate tariffs were announced, the designation raises the risk of tighter US scrutiny of rules of origin and Chinese content, posing downside risks to Thai exports and China-linked investment.
Dollar retreats as markets continue to favour a Fed hold
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.085, +0.86 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.04, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.68, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.20, moving in a range of 33.095 – 33.15 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.00 – 33.20 today. The dollar weakened against all G10 currencies amid thin trading, although softer-than-expected US retail sales and August consumer sentiment had limited market impact. Money-market pricing was broadly unchanged, with investors continuing to favour a Fed hold over a hike following the weak payrolls report and softer inflation data. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen traded choppily after reports suggested the BoJ could raise rates as early as September, with markets pricing around an 80% probability of a 25bp hike. Overall, currency-specific catalysts remained limited as investors awaited the next major market driver.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
