- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.07 – 33.08 this morning, supportive level at 32.95 resistance level at 33.20
- SET Index: 1,612.62 (-0.72%), 11 Aug 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,748.50 (+0.26%), 12 Aug 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.081 (+2.11 bps), 11 Aug 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.68 (-2.00 bps), 12 Aug 2026
- US July CPI meets expectations, boosting September Fed hold bets
- Oil holds steady as US-Iran diplomacy remains in focus
- Japan producer prices stay elevated, keeping BoJ hike bets alive
- PBoC signals continued monetary support for growth
- Dollar recovers despite lower Fed hike bets
US July CPI meets expectations, boosting September Fed hold bets
US July CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with headline inflation rising 0.1% M/M and easing to 3.4% Y/Y, while core CPI rose 0.2% M/M and slowed to 2.5% Y/Y. Shelter was the main driver of the monthly increase, while energy prices fell 1.5%. The lack of an upside surprise, together with the weak July jobs report, supported expectations for the Fed to remain on hold in September, with markets raising the probability of no change to around 60% from 50%.
Oil holds steady as US-Iran diplomacy remains in focus
Oil prices were little changed as markets awaited clearer signals on US-Iran diplomacy. Pakistan said direct and indirect diplomatic channels remain active and suggested the ceasefire could be extended, but Iran pushed back, saying there had been no progress on reviving the interim agreement and that Washington must first return to its commitments. Meanwhile, Trump maintained a firm stance, reiterating US control over the Strait of Hormuz, leaving uncertainty over the ceasefire and reopening of the key shipping route elevated.
Japan producer prices stay elevated, keeping BoJ hike bets alive
Japan’s producer prices remained elevated in July, rising 7.2% Y/Y from 7.3% in June and 0.1% M/M, led by energy, chemicals and non-ferrous metals. Persistent cost pressures could feed into consumer inflation, keeping further BoJ rate hikes in focus.
PBoC signals continued monetary support for growth
The PBoC’s Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation Report reaffirmed its moderately loose policy stance, pledging stronger counter-cyclical support to boost domestic demand while advancing financial reform and high-level opening. The central bank said it will flexibly deploy a range of policy tools to maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative financing conditions, while keeping the yuan broadly stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The PBoC also expects inflation to continue its gradual recovery.
Dollar recovers despite lower Fed hike bets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.081, +2.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.06, +3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.68, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.08, moving in a range of 33.07 – 33.08 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.95 – 33.20 today. The dollar strengthened following an in-line July CPI report, reversing an initial decline alongside a rebound in the US 2-year yield. While the data kept the prospect of further Fed tightening alive, the recent weak NFP report raised the bar for upcoming inflation readings to prompt a more hawkish shift. Markets trimmed the probability of a 25bp September hike to around 40% from 50%, though a full hike remains priced by year-end. The euro softened against the firmer dollar amid limited domestic catalysts, while the British pound pared earlier gains and slipped below 1.3500. The Japanese yen was volatile, with USD/JPY briefly falling below 159.00 before rebounding as dollar strength returned.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
