- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.71 – 33.74 this morning, supportive level at 33.65 resistance level at 33.95
- SET Index: 1,652.97 (+0.42%), 21 July 2026
- S&P 500 Index: 7,509.20 (+0.89%), 21 July 2026
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.048 (-0.28 bps), 21 July 2026
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.63 (+3.00 bps), 21 July 2026
- Geopolitical risks rise as US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing
- Eurozone banks tighten lending standards on geopolitical risks
- Japan’s trade deficit widens on surging import cost
- UK labour market remains resilient ahead of BoE decision
- US dollar strengthens as geopolitical risks lift yields and oil prices
Geopolitical risks rise as US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing
Geopolitical tensions remained the key driver of oil prices, with crude extending its gains as the conflict between the US and Iran showed no signs of easing. Early optimism over reports that Pakistan was attempting to revive US-Iran negotiations quickly faded after Yemen’s Houthis warned shipping companies against using Saudi ports, raising concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy exports. Meanwhile, reports suggested Iran had proposed a 10-day ceasefire, but the US reportedly demanded a longer truce and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with some US officials rejecting the proposal. Later, President Trump reiterated that further military strikes against Iran were imminent, reinforcing fears of further escalation and keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated in the oil market.
Eurozone banks tighten lending standards on geopolitical risks
Eurozone banks further tightened credit standards for businesses and households in Q2 amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict and expect additional tightening in the current quarter. While corporate loan demand increased modestly, lenders rejected a larger share of applications, particularly in the automotive and energy-intensive sectors, highlighting a more cautious lending environment.
Japan’s trade deficit widens on surging import cost
Japan’s trade deficit widened more than expected to JPY 406.9bn in June as a 25.4% YoY surge in imports, driven by higher food, energy, and semiconductor costs, outweighed strong export growth. Meanwhile, exports rose 19.3% YoY, supported by robust shipments of electronics, automobiles, and industrial components.
UK labour market remains resilient ahead of BoE decision
The UK labour market continued to stabilize, with employment rising by 147,000 in the three months to May, well above expectations, while unemployment held steady at 4.9%. Private sector wage growth eased to its slowest pace since 2020, suggesting gradually moderating wage pressures ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting.
US dollar strengthens as geopolitical risks lift yields and oil prices
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.048, -0.28 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB365A) was 2.02, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.63, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.64, moving in a range of 33.71 – 33.74 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.65 – 33.95 today. The US dollar strengthened as renewed geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand and reinforced expectations that higher oil prices could persist, pushing the US 2-year treasury yield close to its year-to-date high and leading markets to price in more than 30bps of additional Fed tightening by year-end. Risk sentiment was weighed by reports that Yemen’s Houthis warned shipping firms to avoid Saudi ports, forcing several Saudi vessels to turn back from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, while talks between Iran and Pakistan made little progress. Against this backdrop, the euro edged lower amid broad dollar strength despite limited regional news, the British pound extended its decline following the appointment of John Healey as UK Chancellor and concerns over the fiscal impact of the new government’s policies, while the Japanese yen weakened further as higher US yields and rising oil prices pushed USD/JPY back above the 163 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
